Theory And Method Of Geo-hazard Risk Assessment In Qinba Mountain

Geo-hazard risk management is the advanced stage of geological disaster management.Most of the developed countriesin Europe and Americahave already established the corresponding geo-hazard risk management system and technical method.A set of geological disaster prevention and management system with investigation and evaluation,monitoring and early warning,emergency response and project management was formed in China.But geo-hazard risk management in China is at the beginning stage.Many deep-seatedproblems such as conflicting terms and theory,inconsistent criteria are still existed.In this study,risk assessment theories and methods are summarized systematically.It took the geological disaster in the town of Qinba Mountains as the researching object.The technical methods of risk assessment are explored.The conclusions as following:Firstly,the development of risk management theorywas summarized.The difference between risk management and geological disasterprevention in China was analyzed.The related terminology and confusing concepts were summarized.Risk management framework in China was explored.The risk criteria of China was determined.Secondly,a set of geo-hazard risk assessment techniques was formed.The key technologies of risk assessment were put forward: time probability,spatial probability and vulnerability.Thirdly,a numerical simulation method for the risk of remote geological disasters in mountainous towns was established by combining the consequence investigation and risk matrix.A technical risk assessment method for remote geological disasters in mountainous towns was formed.Taking Shanyang town as the research object,this paper completed the risk assessment of remote geological disasters.Fourthly,this paper explores the method of regional geological hazard risk assessment based on induced factor: extreme rainfall.Then it took Shanyang town as researching object.Hazard under different rainfall conditions was assessed.The ratio of the disaster trends and distribution law under different rainfall conditions was exposed.Population distribution,traffic and land use were considered to assess risk when rainfall occurs once every 10 years.Finally,Shanyang School landslide and Hongchun Gully were assessed quantitatively by different methods of time probability.In this paper difference between risk management and geological disasterprevention in China was analyzed.A set of technical method of risk management was established.The risk assessment methods ofremote geological disaster,Shanyang town and typical geological disasterswere explored.The results showed that it has good applicability,and can be used as a reference for the implementation of risk management system of geological hazard in china.