| Since the First Industrial Revolution, the development of industrial economy becomes very important to the whole economy as well as the development of other economic sectors, while foreign trade is also indispensable under increasingly open economic enviorment. As we knew, structural evolution is an important embodiment of qualitative aspects of the overall change, which has important significance to promote the whole economic development. Industrial structure and trade structure respectively reflects the status of domestic industrial development and trade development from qualitative aspects, the evolution of which plays an important role that cannot be ignored. Trade structure is not only a reflection of industrial structure, but also a great power to promote transformation of industrial structure. Therefore, whether it is feasible to motivate industry development by promoting trade structure transformation, was an issue of the author’s great concern.With more than a hundred years of development, Japan’s industrial economy entered a mature phase of post-industrial society, In this paper, we study the process and rule of Japanese industrial structure evolution and trade structure transformation process after World War II. On these bases, we also study the link between trade structure and industrial structure change by empirical analysis, especially the influence between industrial structure and the trade structure of the pillar industry. The research has certain theoretical significance in enriching research scope and method of industrial transformation problem.After the collapse of Bretton Woods System in the early1970’s, the history of fixed exchange rate system of Yen came to an end, while Yen get on the way of appreciation. With twice Oil Crisis in the1970s, Japan’s heavy chemical industry’s production costs increased significantly. At the same time, the environmental pollution from heavy industry emerged, In the early1980s, with trade balance surplus raised continuously, Japan faced increasingly serious trade friction with other countries, especially the United States. After the1985Plaza Accord, Japan Yen appreciated nearly110%against dollar in merely three years! Facing the changes of economic situation home and abroad, especially rising cost pressure in the labor-intensive industries and industries with high energy and resource consumption, the only way to survive is transformation of industrial structure and trade structure.With rapid increase of China’s industrial production capacity, energy and resources are quite limited and pollution is increasingly serious. The prices of resources and the costs of labor and raw materials raised a lot, which put forward severe challenges to traditional labor-intensive and resource-intensive industry. At the same time, Chinese exports faced more and more trade frictions with huge trade surpluses for years and the increasingly strict export environment. The appreciation of RMB since July2005brought increasing pressure on China’s export. For these reason, China’s foreign trade is facing huge pressure of structural transformation. Therefore, China’s industrial development is quite similar to that of Japan in the1980s. Researches on the evolution of Japan’s manufacturing structure in changing economic environment home and abroad, especially the direction and rules in the process of Japanese industrial structure and trade structure, is of certain reference which is quite significant to Chinese manufacture’s structural transformation, this is also the starting point of the study.The essay is divided into six chapters.Chapter1is introduction. This chapter first describes the theoratical and practical significance of the study on Japanese manufacturing industrial structure and trade structure evolution. Then reviews the relevant research at home and abroad, and presents the structure, the emphases and difficulties of the essay, as well as the innovation and deficiency.Chapter2presents the theory of industrial structure and trade structure. This chapter clarifies the basic concept of industrial structure and trade structure involved in the paper, from the angle of definition and influence factors of industrial structure and trade structure changes.Chapter3researches the development and structural evolution of the manufacturing industry in postwar Japan. This chapter first studied the development of manufacturing, then the structural revolution of manufacturing in Japan were analyzed on the basis of OECD’s technical intensity classification standard, which focuses on Japanese manufacturing industrial structure evolution process and the degree of evolution of manufacturing in the late50years from1960to2010.Chapter4studies the development and structural evolution of Japan’s foreign trade. This chapter first reviews the development of foreign trade in Japan, and then analyzed the evolving law of Japan’s trade commodity structure with classification on technology intensity, paying special attention to international competitiveness changes of the Japan’s main export industry.In chapter5, we make an empirical analysis on the relation between Japanese manufacturing industry structure and trade structure. On basis of the previous two chapters, this chapter first analyzes the proportion of import and export to production of various industries, then carried empirical analysis on the link between industry structure and trade structure from two aspects respectively, which include the whole manufacturing aspect and industries of different intensity of technology. The correlation coefficient changes in production structure and trade structure of pillar industries are analyzed in the last section of Chapter5.Chapter6made a conclusion, as well as thinking and enlightenment of the evolution of Japan’s manufacturing industry structure and trade structure. This chapter is the summary of the full essay. First of all, summarize the experiences of Japan’s manufacturing industrial structure evolution. Second, make a theoretical thinking for position of manufacturing in national economy and the evolution law of industrial structure and trade structure. Finally, puts forward the enlightenment on the evolution of Japan’s manufacturing structure to the development of China’s manufacturing industry.On research methods, the article analyzed a lot of statistical data on Japanese manufacturing with empirical method and E-views measurement on the basis of studying at home and abroad, In the process of specific analysis, there are dynamic analysis on time series data change of manufacturing, static analysis on different manufacturing department at the same time, and comparisons of the static analysis with data of different time-points. In addition, in order to illustrate the development of manufacturing industry in Japan and its international competitiveness, the paper also make international comparison analysis with data of other countries in certain field.This paper paid much attention to Japanese manufacturing structure evolution process and direction of it, to find the factors that influence structure evolution; and also keeps a watchful eye on the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure. Whether and how trade structure optimization leads to improvement of the manufacturing industry structure upgrade? Answering this question through an empirical analysis is the focus of this article.This paper puts forward innovative academic ideas as follows:First, the structure evolution of Japanese trade is in accordance with the direction of the industrial upgrade, this happened not only between industries, but also within the industry, and trade structure changes greater than that of industrial structure. As structure upgrade of a country’s manufacturing industry, the evolution of export structure reflect trend of industry development, and import structure evolution differentiate with the improvement of national income.Second, the relationship between trade structure and industrial structure will change with the industry development. During Japan’s fast economic growth period, the industrial structure evolution is obviously upgrading, while the import and export structure change have less effect on change of industrial structure, upgrading of industrial structure is quite endogenous. By contrast, during Japan’s economic stagnation, the evolution of industrial structure was fluctuating, when the import and export structure change has greater explanatory power on industrial structure change.Third, the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure varies in industries of different technology intensity. Close relationship exists between industrial structure and export structure of high technology and middle-high technology industry, while the relationship between industrial structure and import structure of middle-low and low technology industry is more closely. The proportion of manufacturing、import and export positively correlated of pillar industry in Japan, if there is a drop in the correlation coefficient or negative correlation, the industry will face transformation (or a recession).The research in this article inevitably has many shortcomings, the study of Japanese manufacturing production structure and trade structure remains to be extended or penetrated, especially the structure transformation of Japan’s manufacturing under open international environment, as well as the international comparison of manufacturing structure evolution, and comparative study between structure transformation of Japanese manufacturing and of Chinese manufacturing, etc., these are important subjects for future study. |
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