Research On The Effect Of Merchandise Structure Of Foreign Trade In China On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

The current China's homologous relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure shows a sort of deviation phenomenon,which could not form a benign interaction relationship between each other.It leads to adverse impact on China's economic develoopment.Therefore,a further study of China's foreign trade structure impact on industrial structure upgrading and exploring how to promote the industrial structure upgrading through optimizing the structure of foreign trade have strong practical significance.According to the above problem,based on the in-depth analysis of relationship between structure of foreign trade and industrial structure and the influence mechanism of foreign trade commodity structure to industrial structure upgrading,the empirical analysis is further adopted in this paper to verify the effect of China's foreign trade commodity structure on industrial structure upgrading.First of all,and to make the measure of upgrading of industrial structure more reasonable,indicators of "industrial structure rationalization" and "industrial structure supererogation" are adopted in the empirical research.Secondl,in this paper,the concept of the foreign trade commodity structure includes foreign trade services structure,which was overlooked in the past research,except for foreign trade goods structure.Finally,through cointegration analysis,VEC model and impulse response analysis,the paper obtained the foreign trade commodity structure long-term impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,short-term adjustment effect and dynamic effect relationship.The empirical results show that in the long run,China's foreign trade goods structure(GST)plays a positive role in promoting industrial structure upgrade,but in the short term,the effect of China's foreign trade goods structure(GST)to upgrading of industrial structure is not significant.But long-tern,short-term and dynamic effect of foreign trade services structure(SST)on upgrading of industrial structure is not significant or even there is a certain inhibition effect.This result confirmed that the current China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure exist a certain deviation phenomenon.Thus,this paper draws the following conclusions.As for trade in goods,in the long term,due to the net exports of manufactured goods being positive to China's upgrading of industrial structure,so China should continue to focus on manufactured goods export or other high value-added products,through which to optimize the foreign trade goods structure to achieve the purpose of promoting industrial upgrading.But this approach is not effective in the short term to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,which means that solving the problem of China's upgrading of industrial structure needs to stand in the perspective of long-term development,overall planning and steady progress,but not overnight0 As for foreign trade services structure,the most emergent problem is to continue to develop trade in services,further improving the import and export trade volume and getting rid of the plight of services trade deficit for many years.Second,it should continue to maintain momentum of net export of the high technical service trade,expanding high value-added products trade in services.