Research On Evolution Trend And Optimizing Strategy Of Export Trade Of China’s Fruit

China has always enjoyed the reputation of The Kingdom of world fruit, almost all kindsof fruit can produce whatever the world can. Since1990s, Fruit Industry in China entered anew developing stage.Whether fruits planting area or product have a historic leap. As a labordenseness industry, Fruit Industry has become the third largest pillar industry following thegrains and vegetables in china’s farming. Especially temperate and subtropical dry and freshfruit is world.famous（such as apple, pear, citrus, grape, chestnut and so on）.In21st century,the yields of fruit is always taking the first place, but also fruit trade has made considerableprogress. Especially after entering WTO, China fruit’s foreign trade step into a phase of rapidgrowth. The value of fruit export in2011is3.188billion and has increased474.96%compared with2002, which has been increased by average9.4%every year. However,China’s export structure of fruits still unreasonable. In the first place, display itself as exportvariety and structure unreasonable, such as single of export variety, the rate of high qualityand high grade fruit being not high, empty of market power (ability to market pricing and riskresistance).And the other is unreasonable market structure, which mainly manifested as thedistribution of export market is very centralized and mostly located in many countries andareas such as ASEAN, Russia, Japan, EU,USA. But the main consumption market occupancyof Europe and America is relatively low. Third is unreasonable structure of processing. Itmainly manifested as the degree of processing being relatively low, which leads to lowadditional value of fruit exports. Fourth is unreasonable industrialization structure. It is shownas the lower degree of organization of peasants, leading enterprises being in small scale andamount, industrial promoting capability being not enough. It is difficult to implementintegration of production, transport, storage and sale, which reduce product’s competition.Trade structure is the reflection of industrial structure. The reason of China being the bigcountry of fruit production but not trade power is unreasonable industrial structure.The meaning of the research is that firstly the overall start and implement of CAFTA in2010, the tariff of vegetable and fruit between China and CAFTA is reduced to zero, whichwill significantly promote the rapid development of the fruit trade. Secondly, fruit productionis labor intensive industry. China has rich labor resource, which is much more resourceadvantages than others in producing fruit including other developed countries. Throughdeepening research to trade structure for making fruit trade bigger and stronger,it is not onlybeneficial to peasants increasing income, but also a reasonable transfer of surplus labor forcein rural areas. Thirdly, fruit production is China’s superior industry and trade prospect is board. Fruit as phytogenic food, distance factor is natural trade barriers. Between China andsurrounding Countries there is strong complementarity in terms of fruit production. Throughdeepening research to trade structure to optimize the construction of industry, we can changeindustrial advantage into trade one to promote the rapid development of the entireindustry.The fourth, industry structure is the foundation of trade structure. Chinese economyhas stepped into the developement of industrial structural transformation. Industrial structureadjustment should be demand oriented. What should be taken into consideration includes notonly domestic market demand but also an increasingly globalized international marketdemand. Core of international market demand oriented should adjust structure of productionand trade based on the international market structure to optimize industrial structure. Thisstudy was designed to makes an empirical analysis the Current Situation of China’s fruit tradefrom demand，structure and competitiveness three dimensions to probe into the causes ofgrowth and changes about China’s fruit trade, insight into the main variety of fruit exportmarket power and find the key problems of existing in export industry chain each link to buildup an industrial structure of competitive and rapid growth. The works are beneficial toexplores how to promote the rapid development of China’s fruit trade and improve theinternational competitiveness from the structure optimization and make contribution toindustrial upgrading, peasants increase income, food safety, stable and healthy developmentof national economy and have great value for making decision and planning of fruit trade forrelated government department and enterprise.This research’s basic mentality is, on the basis of the related concepts of internationaltrade, to summerize and analyze the researches on present situation of the development ofChina’s fruit trade and production, to makes a comparative analysis of the reason ofincreasing fluctuation and the influential elements of china’s fruits export in target marketusing the CMS model, to makes use of the gravity model and residual demand elasticitymodel to analyze main influence factors of trade flow of apple and the global market power inmain target market，based on the changes of demand structure, trend of production andmarketing is predicted with using regression and arma model.This dissertation aims at a profound and systematic study on the industrial and tradestructural of China’s fruit by organic combination of methodologies including internationaltrade theory, industrial economics, regional economics, management,gardening, foodprocessing, statisticsThis research’s primary coverage and the viewpoint are: （1）Change Analysis of supply and export structure of China’s fruitAbove all, to analyze the researches on present situation of the development of China’sfruit Industry from the perspectives of resource endowment. To analyze the present situationof the development of China’s fruit separately from natural resources condition, yield, varietystructure, production distribution, processing and production position in the world. Thenanalyze structural characteristics and relying on capital market of China’s fruit from theperspectives of trade structure. Mainly discusses the change of the whole market and needsfor resource endowment, production structure, trade structure, main export market to findmain and potential market of fruit export（2）Change Analysis of export marketing structure of China’s fruitFirstly, to analyze the researches on changes of export marketing structure of China’sfruit using the CMS model. Mainly discusses the change of from demand，structure andcompetitiveness three dimensions to probe into the causes of growth and changes in themarket of ASEAN, Russia, Japan, USA, EU. Then mainly discusses whether production andexport of China’s fruit to concentrate in the products of world fruit demand growing quicklyand whether export of China’s fruit to concentrate in the countries and regions of world fruitdemand growing quickly.（3）analyze trade flow of primary export fruit and the global market power of ChinaThe major determinant of trade structure change can be divided into the elements growthof supply, income growth of demand, change in the international trade barrier, improvementof transportation condition and other aspects. Through constructing the gravity model to makea analysis of main factors of China’s fruit export including price, quality, GDP, population,bilateral exchange rate, distance etc.and influence degree. Then select the markets in whichhave trade advantage to calculate and analyze the market power and its status in main targetmarket through constructing residual demand elasticity model. Constantly improve the qualityof fruit export and optimize export structure through the impacts of export commoditystructure transition from market power.（4）Analysis on the Main Influential Factors of China’s fruit exportThere are many factors which are related to China’s fruit export. These factors may besummarized as follows: price factor and non price factor. We also believe the factor of hardindex and soft index. The factor of hard index refers to the price and cost. The factor of softindex mostly is the trade barrier, planting fruit of quality and safety, consumer demandchanging, organization degree of fruit grower and so on. Through deeply dissecting to the main influential factors of China’s fruit export, lay a solid foundation for further grasping thedeveloping trends and put ting forward to optimization strategy.（5）Analysis on evolution trend and optimizing strategy of China’s fruit exportAccording to the historical development of the main markets of Chinese fruit export(ASEAN, Russia, Japan, USA, EU.) and several main export varieties(apple, citrus, pear,chestnut, etc.).Using regression and arma model,change trends of the main markets ofChinese fruit export and several main export varieties are forecasted. Measures andsuggestions to strength fruit trade are put forward from the perspective of marketdevelopment and industrial structure (production structure, demand structure, processing,trade structure) optimization.