Fruit Export Trade Empirical Analysis

Fruit is an important economic crop of China, the development and trade of fruit industry has a significant position in China's economy. Since the adjustment of agricultural structure in 1978, China's fruit industry gains rapid development.Since 1997, China has been the largest fruit production contry. Output of fruit has been increased from 6,570,000 ton in 1978 to 50,893,000 ton in 1997, China's fruit output has reached 95,992,000 ton in 2006, and it has reached 18.1% of the world fruit production.The development of China's fruit industry has also promoted fruit export, the export value of fruit has increased from 283 million $ in 1992 to 1284 million.However, compared with other major fruit exporting countries in the world, great gap still exists between China and them.The export volume of China's fruit accounts for about 2 percent of output, about 2 percent of world's total export volume.It shows although China is a large fruit producing country, it is not a big exporting country.Various factors which influences China's fruit export exist, carrying out a deep analysis on the major influential factors has great significance in exploiting the full potentiality of China's fruit export, and turning China from a large fruit producing country to a great fruit exporting country.Applying the comparative advantage theory, intra-industry theory and competitiveness theory of international trade theory, this dissertation carries out a research on the major influential factors of China's fruit export from the perspective of world competition.It also carries out a reason analysis of the change of China's fruit export to Asian, Japan, EU, and USA.It studies the competitiveness of China's major exporting fruit: apple, orange and pear.And it studies on the influence of technical barriers to China's fruit export.And the dissertation gets the following conclusion.Firstly, through the analysis on the development of world fruit trade, characteristics and trade policy of international fruit trade, it illustrates the international background that China's fruit exporting industry faces.The result is as the following: Since 1992, fruit trade in the world shows a characteristics of export volume increasing.The world fruit market includes 3 parts: ie, EU, NAFTA and ASIA.The trade among them includes the intra-trade of three parts and extra-trade between the three parts and the southern hemisphere.Intra-trade is important, while the importance of the intra-trade is different in the three parts.The trade policy of world fruit trade includes tariff barrier and non-tariff barrier, and the technical barrier has become an important part of non-tariff barrier.At the same time when the trade environment of the world fruit trade changes, China's fuit trade environment also changes, which is mainly shown in China's joining WTO in 2001 and China's signing a free-trade agreement with Asian.Secondly, through the analysis of the change of China's fruit export, the following conclusion was reached, both of the export and import value shows an increasing trend since 2000.The trade structure shows monotonous varieties and the market is concentrated in mainly in Asian, Japan, EU and Russia.The change of China's fruit export is different in various markets: The share of the export value increases rapidly in Asian market, increase somewhat in EU market, decends in Japan and Russian market.The variety structure of fruit export is comparatively monotonous, mainly concentrating on apples , pears and oranges, etc.and the the structure is concentrating more on apples and pears.There are two ways of China's fruit trade:inter-industry trade and intra-industry trade. Generally, the inter-industry takes an overwhelming part, while the intra-industry trade shows an increasing trend.From the angle of sub-division of inter-industry trade, the vertical inter-industry trade has a dominating position.Thirdly, through the use of the gravity model, this dissertion carries out an analyisis on the influential factors of China fruit export's trade flow, the result shows that GDP of the importing country, China's agricultural GDP, the distance between China and the importing country, the real exchange rate and whether the two belongs to APEC are all the major influential factors of China's fruit export trade.The free trade agreement that China signs with Asian promotes China's fruit export to Asian.Through the research on the potentiality of China's fruit export, it shows that countries that China has not carried out its potentiality are Australia, France, Japan and Singapore, and countries that China has over-traded are Indonesia, Malasia, Netherland and Russia.Fourthly, using the CMS model, this paper carries a reason analysis on the change of China's fruit export on the world market and Asian, Japan, Russian,EU and USA markets.The result shows that the rapid development of China's fruit export in the world market since 2001 is because of the increase of China's fruit competitiveness and the increase of the world demand, the contributive percentage of which are 63% and 40.2%.Since 2001, the development of China's fruit export in Asian market is bacause of the increase of China's competitiveness and the improvement of China's fruit export structure, with the improvement of China's fruit export structure is the major reason of the increase of China' fruit export.While in USA market, the the increase of China's competitiveness contributes most in the development of the China's fruit export.In EU market, increase of China's competitiveness and the improvement of China's fruit export structure nealy contributes equallly in the development of China's fruit export.Fifthly, using the RCA and MS index, this paper measuring the competitiveness of China's fruit , the result shows that apple and pear is competitive in the world market, but compared with other major exporting countries, great gap still exists. China's fruit is price competitive, but it lacks in non-price competitiveness, mainly shown in quality and marketing.Sixly, it carries out an analysis on the influence of the trade barrier on China's fruit trade, the result shows that the import tariff of EU and Japan, the non-tarriff barrier, including the food safetyt regulations, standards and authentication, and quarantine requirements.Trade barriers have significant influence on China's fruit export trade.Upon the above six part, counter-measures are put forward, the key part including:establishing standards which meets requiement of international standards, taking an active part in the application of authentication; adjusting the variety structure, adopting the policy of market pluralism; participating actively in WTO affairs, promoting the process of APEC, and joining the regional cooperation; strengthening the government cooperation with other countries, establishing the non-quarantine region, etc.