Study On Evaluation And Control Strategy Of Refuge Evacuation In Commercial Center Districts Of Mountainous Cities

In response to the global climate changes and urban high-speed development andintensive growth, the quantity and density of urban residents and assets are bothincreasing rapidly, which leads to more and more hidden dangers of urban disaster. Asthe risk level of urban disaster becomes bigger, urban disaster prevention is facingmore complex situation and being increasingly concerned.In view of this, the thesis summarized researches in structure frame of urbandisaster prevention plan and modern cities’ development in dealing with urbandisaster prevention. It chose Sichuan and Chongqing commercial center district as theresearch object, by integrating the research of urban residents’ evacuation behavingand the regional features of disaster research, from the view of multi-disciplines,built up a preliminary theoretical framework of evaluation and control of commercialcenter district safe evacuation. We made up the mountainous commercial centerdistrict safe evacuation evaluation model systematically and discussed its safeevacuation control strategy and mechanism in multi-dimensional space environment.The thesis helps to perfect and expand the subject system and research area ofmountainous urban disaster prevention.At first, the thesis analyzed the environmental features of Sichuan andChongqing urban space and the influences to urban disaster prevention from socialeconomic development as a whole. Then it hackled the space constructiondevelopment and safety environment of mountainous commercial center district andmade clear that its main disaster types are earthquake, geological disaster and itssecondary disasters. Furthermore, it studied the disaster problems in mountainouscommercial center district such as the serious contradiction in man-land relationshipand the lagging of disaster prevention infrastructure construction. On this basis, thethesis determined earthquake and its main secondary disaster (fire) as the mostserious influence essential factors to mountainous commercial center district.This thesis put forward the standpoints that evaluation and control ofcommercial center district safe evacuation are the important parts of disaster control in urban plan. Through the analysis on its theoretical features in basic element,content composition, separate-level target and value orientation, it built up apreliminary theoretical framework of evaluation and control of commercial centerdistrict safe evacuation. Under this guiding, by using the Analytical HierarchyProcess, this thesis built up the safe evacuation evaluation model of mountainouscommercial center district. It ascertained5integral control items and15detailedcontrol factors, and built up the three-level evaluation index system of mountainouscommercial center district safe evacuation. We determined the index weight on thebasis of related expert evaluations which will lay a foundation for furtherinvestigations of mountainous commercial center district safe evacuation controlstrategy and mechanism.Then, by choosing the five large commercial center districts as example, in themacroscopic and microcosmic point of view, the thesis made the analog simulation byusing the software Anylogic. It considered both control strategy and mechanisminvestigation, put emphasis on how to chose a suitable and safe destination ofevacuation, how to do a reasonable responsibility division and how to optimize safeand efficient evacuation paths. By Comparison to relative evacuation methods inplain cities, this thesis made many specific modifications to explore an economicaland high efficient control strategy and enforcement mechanism of mountainouscommercial district safe evacuation.