Temporal-spatial Characteristics And Evolution Mechanism Of Transport Emissions

The continuing growth of transport carbon emissions has serious impact on thedevelopment efficiency of social economy and the quality of residents travel. Developinglow-carbon transportation has become the main measure of Chinese government to tackleclimate change and environmental pollution. Controlling the transport carbon emissions is thekey to build a low-carbon transport system. However, the spatial-temporal characteristics oftransport carbon emissions is very complex，and there are so many factors to affect thetransport carbon emissions，and the influence mechanism of these factors is not very clear，which makes it very difficult to reduce the carbon emissions of transportation. Currently, it islack of comprehensive researches about the feature and the evolution mechanism of transportcarbon emissions, unable to provide decision basis for setting carbon reduction targets,planning a low-carbon transportation system and developing carbon reduction policies.Therefore, a study of the feature and the evolution mechanism of transport carbon emissionshas become a critical and urgent issue. The dissertation took transport carbon emissions as theobject of study, studied the spatial-temporal characteristics, influence factors and evolutionmodels of transport carbon emissions.The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Divided the time characteristics of transport carbon emissions into short-termcharacteristics and long-term characteristics and put forward a calculation method to studythese characteristics. Based on the elastic decoupling index model, took the total carbonemissions of transportation and the energy structure of carbon emissions as variables,established a calculation model used to measure the short-term fluctuations characteristics oftransport carbon emissions. Based on the R/S fractal theory, took the carbon emissions oftransportation and the efficiency of Carbon emissions as variables of time series evolution ofcarbon emissions, put forward a calculation method of Hurst Index. Empirical analysis showsthat: transport carbon emissions of china exists deterministic and stochastic characteristics, itsshort-term fluctuations state is very complex, while there are fractal characteristics ofself-similarity and persistence in the long run.(2) Studied the degree, source and convergence characteristics of spatial distributiondifference of transport carbon emissions. Using the standard deviation and variationcoefficient estimated the absolute difference and relative difference of transport carbonemissions in spatial distribution, established a Theil index model and a first-orderdecomposition model of transport carbon emissions whose weight depends on the added valueof transportation，established a panel regression model used to examine the convergence oftransport carbon intensity difference. Through computation, obtained the degree and source ofspatial distribution difference of transport carbon emissions, found that transport carbonintensity difference has convergence characteristics of β.(3)Based on the KAYA identities, established a factor decomposition model oftransportation carbon emissions. Using factor decomposition studied how the internal factors(such as Scale of road transport, Road transport energy consumption carbon emissions,Transport intensity and Transport structure) and external factors (such as Economic development and Population size) affect the evolution of transport carbon emissions.Empirical analysis shows that: the pulling effect on China’s transport carbon emissions growthcaused by structural factors is only not as obvious as the pulling effect caused by scale factors;among the technical factors, road transport energy intensity could significantly suppress thegrowth of transport carbon emissions, while the inhibition caused by the transportation energycarbon emission factor is relatively weak.(4) Analysis the period characteristics of transportation emissions based on EKC.Established a vector autoregression model, an impulse function and a variance decompositionmodel, analyzed the mutual dynamic effects caused by mutual impact and its contribution andimportance. Based on the dynamic effect of influence factors, studied the dynamicrelationship between transport carbon emissions and transport growth and analyzed itscharacteristic. Empirical analysis shows that: mutual impact between transport-kilometers andtransport carbon emissions exists only in the short term, the growth of carbon emissions has anegative influence on the growth of transport-kilometers in the short term.Transport-kilometers affected only by the fluctuation itself in the first period, the impacteffect caused by transport carbon emissions appears only in the second period. While thetransport-kilometers has a direct and fundamental impact on the transport carbon emissionsand its contribution rate has appeared in the first period.(5) Based on the EKC curve and logistic model, took the parameters of transport carbonreduction policy as control variable, established an evolution model of transport carbonemissions and analyzed the general evolution law of transport carbon emissions. Throughsimulation, obtained the evolution curve of transport carbon emissions and changing rule ofcarbon emission reductions：under the influence of policy control parameters (μ&δ), transportcarbon emissions changes with a "S" type growth characteristics; different policy controlparameters affect the rate and peak point of the carbon evolution curve in different degrees, asa result, the carbon emission reductions is different. Parameter μ has more significant effectson the evolution curve growth rate of transport carbon emissions than parameters δ.(6) Regarded transportation structure as the interaction between different modes oftransport, put forward an evolution dynamics model of transport carbon emissions which isbased on traffic transfer and analyzed the influence mechanism which the traffic transferaffects the evolution of transport carbon emissions. Through simulation, obtained thechanging rule of carbon emission reduction with different transfer of traffic: the evolution oftransport carbon emissions has relationship with the degree of transfer of traffic; thehigh-carbon modes of transport has significant effect on the evolution of transport carbonemissions in the earlier stage, while the low-carbon modes of transport has significant effecton the evolution of transport carbon emissions in the late period.