Under The Restriction Of Resources And Environment Technology Research In Choosing The Leading Industry In Our Country

The Chinese economy has made rapid progress since the opening-up and reformpolicies, with dramatic increases in overall volume and problems such as low level ofproducts and technology, environmental hazards, resource squandering, the originaldominating industries’ inconformity with development goals. As a result, the futureeconomic development needs optimization and upgrading in industrial structure, andnew dominating industries in conformity with environmental, resource andtechnological advancement. The purpose of this essay is to find the dominatingindustries in conformity with future requirements through the analysis on dominatingindustries and by building the dominating industry-selecting model.First the essay conducts a detailed analysis on the problems and constraints forChina’s current industrial structure and industrial development and finds that theoriginal dominating industrial system has brought out many problems, such as energyshortage, environmental hazards, industrial hollowing-out, not good for technologicalupgrading, and specifies the conditions and core elements of future dominatingindustries.Secondly, by conducting in-depth research into the formation and evolution ofdominating industries in the industrialization process for Japan and the United States,especially the experiences and lessons from Japan, the essay finds significantreferences for the choice of China’s dominating industries. The references are asfollows: The dominating industries should be determined in view of the country’sspecific resource endowments, production and technological level and the stage ofindustrialization. It is of vital importance to master the future technological trends inorder to choose the dominating industries.Master foreign force to introduce andabsorb foreign technology, fund and experience and cultivate self-innovativecapabilities.Increase the preferential support for industrial policies, combine thegovernment intervention and market mechanism organically, and develop industrialclusters. Balance the development of dominating industries and cultivation ofemerging industries. In the mid-and-late stage of industrialization, China shouldchoose electronics and information technology, telecommunication and otherindustries with high value-added, low pollution and energy consumption asdominating industries.Thirdly, this essay finds that the choice of dominating industries is closely relatedwith the economic development stage and the stage of life cycle for the variousindustries. According to the industrialization theory of H. Chenery, China is at thetransitional stage between mid-and late period of industrialization. But as the worldeconomy is in recession, and Chinese economy is showing signs of slow-down, theeconomic outlook for China is not so good. By analyzing the changes in the growthrate of market demands, competition structure of market players, technologicalupgrading speed, gross profit margins, and this essay finds out the stages of life cyclefor China’s various industries. In the meantime, the author conducts an empirical research into the relevance ofindustries by employing traditional input-output model and gets the influence andinduction coefficients of various industries, then further improve the traditionalinput-output model by adding elements of ecological resource constraints andtechnology spreading, re-conducting the mutual influence and co-relevance betweenvarious industries, and dynamic research into the multi-period data.Then based on the present research results, problems and constraints facing China,the author determines the selection criteria for China’s dominating industries:industrial arousing benchmark, technological over-passing benchmark, benchmark ofcompetency in foreign trading, economy benchmark of resources, pollutant emissionbenchmark, employment benchmark, output scale benchmark, demand elasticitybenchmark. And the essay conducts an empirical analysis on the choice of China’sdominating industries in the new circumstances by employing factor analyticalmethod.The result shows that for the overall factor scores of42industries,telecommunication, PC and other electronics equipment industries rank first,agriculture ranks second, wholesale industry ranks third, architecture ranks fourth,information transmission, computer service and software industry ranks fifth,instrument, apparatus and cultural, office equipment manufacturing ranks sixth,electric, machinery and equipment manufacturing ranks seventh, general andspecial-purpose equipment manufacturing ranks eighth. These industries consume lowenergy, on the other hand, their pollutant emission is also lower, and if the technologyis of high standard, this could be further improved. As a result, China can choosetelecommunication, PC and other electronics equipment industries, agriculture,wholesale industry, architecture, information transmission, computer service andsoftware industry, instrument, apparatus and cultural, office equipment manufacturing,electric, machinery and equipment manufacturing, general and special-purposeequipment manufacturing as the future dominating industries and commit moreresources on them.Finally, the essay analyzes the reasons for choosing the above dominatingindustries from the perspective of industrial economics. These dominating industriesare in conformity with the theoretical framework of industrial structure optimizationand upgrading, industrial evolution in the industrial economics. Furthermore, as thestock market is indicative of future economic trends to some degree, this essay alsoconducts a research into the performances of these dominating industries on China’sstock market. The result further verifies the recognition and correctness of the choice.In the meantime, the author renders his recommendations on the industrial polices forpromoting the development of these dominating industries and the coordinateddevelopment of these dominating industries and seven Strategic Emerging Industries.