A Study On Dynamic System Of Rural Tourism Development

Rural tourism is the product of rural economic and tourism economic development. Inrecent years, with the rapid development of rural tourism in China, there has been rapidgrowth in the number of rural tourism with slow increase in quality; the blossom of ruraltourism products and content uniformity problems co-exist. How to achieve the sustainabledevelopment of rural tourism, accelerating the upgrade and innovation of rural tourism hasbecome the major issue of rural tourism. Previous studies have shown at home and abroad,one of the main approaches to promote the sustainable and healthy development of ruraltourism is to build up a long-term dynamic system of rural tourism development based on thenature, characteristics and law of the destination construction of rural tourism.In this study, the systematic scientific research paradigm and methods have been used,combined with sustainable development theory, tourism life-cycle theory, system dynamicsand the core-periphery theory, etc. to explore the structure of dynamic system and operatingenvironment and mechanisms of rural tourism. At the same time, the simulation model ofdynamic system has been used to predict the tendency of rural tourism development in Xi’an,and the perfection and optimization strategy of rural tourism dynamic system of Xi’an havebeen discussed. The paper includes four parts. Part I proposing research background andprocedure, sorting and summarizing domestic and international research on the dynamics ofrural tourism. Part2are theoretical and practical foundation of this research. Part3is thefocus of the thesis, which mainly deal with the three major elements (the structure, operationand simulation prediction of dynamic system) of the research in rural tourism dynamic system.Part4put forward with the measures of improving and optimizing rural tourism dynamicsystem and the conclusions of this thesis.The main conclusions:(1) the dynamic system of rural tourism development mainly includes five subsystems:demand, supply, media, support and decision. Based on Using the systematic thinking andscientific method, the author believe the development of rural tourism is the sequence ofmany dynamic factors, and the dynamic system of accelerating rural tourism development iscontrollable and open. Based on practice and theoretical research of rural tourismdevelopment at home and abroad, the thesis believes that the dynamic system of rural tourismincludes five subsystems: demand subsystem, supply subsystem, media subsystem, support subsystem and decision subsystem, which play a different role in the dynamic system of ruraltourism development. These subsystems assume the function of market pull, guide,transmission, assistance and accelerating respectively, which make mutual influence andrestraint, and promote the function of dynamic system of rural tourism to benefit thesustainable development.(2) There are four leading power factors promoting rural tourism development in Xi’an,Based on building the dynamic systematic model. Through analyzing the process andcharacteristics of rural tourism development, the author builds up an evaluation system ofdynamic system of rural tourism development, which consists of5element layers and14indicators. Taking the10counties in Xi’an as an example, using evaluation system and theprincipal component analysis method of statistical software SPSS.19evaluating the status quoof those ten counties, the result shows that there are four leading dynamic elementsaccelerating rural tourism development in Xi’an: resources, economic development, farmersinvolvement and location dynamics. On the basis of above four leading elements, we canbuild up the dynamic systematic model of rural tourism development in Xi’an.(3) There are four modes of rural tourism development in Xi’an: farmer-driven dynamicmode, economic-driven dynamic mode, location&farmer-driven dynamic mode andresource-driven dynamic mode.(4) The prediction of dynamic system of rural tourism development in Xi’an shows thatthe rural tourism development in Xi’an is at the fast-growing stage, and the income and scenicarea of rural tourism will significantly increase in the next10years. Taking the rural tourismincome and scenic area as prediction objects, selecting and determining the predicting indexesof effecting the rural tourism development, using BP neural network model, gray system GM(1,1) model and MATLAB mathematical theory and engineering software technology, theauthor made a simulation prediction of dynamic system of rural tourism development in Xi’anin the next10years and built up a simulation forecasting model based on the date of ruraltourism development in Xi’an from2006to2010.(5) The enhancement and optimizing of five subsystems is the core content of dynamicsystem improvement of rural tourism development in Xi’an. Through the research of thedynamic systematic structure, operation and simulation prediction of rural tourismdevelopment, the core content of improving dynamic system of rural tourism in Xi’anincludes strengthening the demand subsystem, improving the supply subsystem, optimizingthe decision subsystem, building the supporting subsystem and perfecting the mediasubsystem.