| Every experienced construction project manager knows that there are uncertainties and risks in every project and the impact of risk cannot be ignored. With the gradual expansion of the modern construction enterprises, it is prevailing that one enterprise manages multiple projects simultaneously. So, programme risk management is in urgent need for projects. However, current techniques and methods of risk management have defects in practice, which could not only lead to the failure of the risk management, but also make the effects and enthusiasm of the manager in vain. Based on the risk element transmission theory, the thesis dicussed the construction programme risk element transmission problem and designed related information system that could provide decision support, all these researches aim to evaluate the transmission effect of risk element within single project and programme systematically and dynamically. Furthermore, accurate and comprehensive information of risk management decision for managers can be presented by decision support system. The main research are as follows:(1) First of all, the background and sigmificance of selected topic were presented. Then, the thesis described the research status and development trends of construction project risk management from four aspects:risk management for single construction project, project risk element transmission, construction programme and multi-project risk management, project chain risk element transmission. Finally, the main contents and structure were determined, and innovation points of this research were showed.(2) Discussed the concepts of programme and its ralated conceptions, and revealed the relation and distinction among them. Furthered the concept of project risk element, redefined project risk element transmission which was divided it into five types according to its transmission route:relation type,chain type, tree type, network type, chaos type. Besides, it also introduced the main theoretical methodology—system dynamics which the model based on, and analyzed the feasibility and advantages when it was applied in construction project risk element transmission research.(3) Taking single project in construction programme as the research object, the factors leading to increase of project quantities were considered as main objective risk element, and the decision of managers were considered as decision risk element (subjective risk element). Therefore, it analyzed the transmission process of objective risk element to project targets by relations among elements in the project under the function of decision risk element, by using system dynamics. Based on it, the system dynamics model of single construction project risk element transmission was built, which could evaluate the impact of the objective risk element on project targets under the decision risk element comprehensively and quantitatively. (4) Constructed the priority evaluation index system of subproject in programme based on risk element transmission, including two dimensions, eight indexes in all. And then the comprehensive weight of each index was calculated by using the subjective weight method. Due to it, the priority evaluation model for subproject in programme was built based on triangular fuzzy number, which could determine the comparative priority sequence of each project, dealing with risks while enjoying allocated resouces, under the programme circumstance.(5) Standing by the height of construction enterprise, taking programme capital as a link among subprojects, and then defined black box decision risk element of capital allocation among subprojects. The system dynamics model of programme risk element transmission was built, based on the model of single project risk element transmission and priority of projects. By simulating and analyzing the single project and programme risk element transmission model, some general rules of risk element transmission in construction project were found. For example:In the planned construction period, the transmission effect of objective risk element on the cost would accelerative increase with the increase of quantities risk element. No matter in what circumstance, single project or programme, the decision risk element can change the transmission effect of objective risk element on project targets.(6) To guarantee the model application for project and programme management, the decesion support system was selected as the specific research object of information system, so a construction programme risk management decision support system for construction programme manager based on risk element transmission was designed. |
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