Research And Application On Technology Of Urban Water Supply Forecasting And Emergency Dispatching

With the global climate change, climatic anomaly and extreme weather events frequently occur in China, urban water supply crisis which are caused by extreme drought have occurred; at the same time, sudden water pollution accidents frequently occur, particularly, After "9.11"event happened in America and "Song Huajiang" chemical contamination event, the problem of urban water supply safety becomes severe and highlight; once more, The accidents that are caused by geological hazard which includes flood, earthquake, drought, fire disaster,storm, mud-flow and so on, War, human damage, are likely to destroy the source of drinking water, water pipeline,water facilities and waterworks, unable to supply drinking water to meet the requirements of healthy and during the period of disaster and after disaster, cause great pain and loss to human life and property. Therefore, in order to prevent watersupply insecurities which are caused by extreme weather and emergencies, to protect the security and sustainable development of China’s urban water supply, on the basis of summing up the research status of home and abroad, put forward the foundation of urban water supply emergency warning, build the forecasting technology of urban water supply and demand at dry season, emergency warning technology, the emergency scheduling model and emergengcy management system, at last, taking Anyang city as an example, analyse and discuss the building and application of urban water supply emergency warning model of the plain areas of Anyang city. The main research results and conclusions are as followed:(1)Expound the theorecical foundation of urban water supply forecasting warning and emergency dispatching systematically. Introduce the method of water supply forecasting, the category and the grade of emergencies, the composition and the grade of warning, publish of information; provide the emergency plan and emergency dispatching measures.(2)The forecasting technology of urban water supply and demand in the dry season.According to the characteristics of China’lowflow, establish the technology of runoff forecasting model of reservoir at dry season based on BP neural network, as basis to the groundwater numerical model, build up the forecasting model of the available groundwater based on the water balance equation, the forecasting model of water demand and the forecasting model of urban water supply and demand at dry season, put forward the technology of urban water supply security warning, incuding the research methodes and technologies of the division of warning grade, approval authority, issuing process, the indicators and standards of early warning(reservoir and the groundwater sources).(3)The technology of urban water supply emergency dispatching model based on rules.According to the network map of urban water supply emergency dispatching, establish the model of urban water supply emergency scheduling based on rules, that is to say, strictly follow to the series system operating rules, as far as possible to to ensure the security of water supply or the least affected, according to the order of urban water supply sources priority utilited and users priority meet, take the scheduling way of the priority water sources first applied and priority users first meet、set project watershed parameters、 the operation rules of reservoir dispatching、the rules of groundwater utilized、water resource conversion parameters、the protection of water resources utilized、water demand and so on, through the daily adjustment calculation of urban water supply emergency dispatching, quickly solve the questions of complex calculation of hydrological compensating, engineering compensating, emergency water sources utilized and scheduled,which exist in urban water supply system which are more water sources,more users, more engineering, abtain the emergency scheduling scheme of facing to urban water supply security on time.(4)The system of urban water supply security emergrncy warning and emergency managementBased on the existing database, using the forecasting model、the warning model and the emergency dispatching model,which are set up in the paper, using the concept of object-oriented design, develope the system of urban water supply security emergency warning and emergency scheduling, achieve the functions of data management(information services)、plan management、water supply and demand forecasting、emergency warning(alarm)、emergency dispatching, provide a decision-making platform for urban water supply emergency management.(5) Set up the model of urban water supply security emergency warning in Anyang city.According to the characteristic of water supply, using the warning theory、warning thenology、warning model and management system, which are put forward in the paper, give the warning standard and warning result, and then, analyse different scenarios which are set up by different emergencies, at last, give the plan of urban water supply security emergency dispatching of Anyang city.