Research On The Safety Of Vessel Traffic System Within The Three Gorges Dam Waters

The construction of Three George Dams water traffic system is very complex. It has many characteristics, such as sensitive, complicated, exoteric, systematical and sudden changed. By the method of safety system engineering, the doctoral dissertation analyzed the human, vessel, enviroment and mangement factors comprehensively.Analyzing of accidents and dangerous cases is an important way to identify risks. The dissertation made a detailed statistics and analysis. Collision, rocking, nightime accedents and individual ship affairs are more ourstanding. Among the accidents and dangerous cases, there were two centralized districts, and 80% centralized between the two dams water area. Accident reasons study indicated that the human factor is the most impotrant factor, and the more important is emviroment factor. Using system dynamics theory, The dissertation analyzed the interactional process of many factors of the system. And the dissertation made the anatomy of the typical accidents and dangerous cases with cause and effect flow charts.The main risks’ analyzing showed that seamen’s education level was low, and their abality was ineligible for job incompletely, particularly the individual seamen. The main risks of ships involved that the ships’ safety technical situation was low, many small ships, 4 type passenger ships and dangerous cargo ships. The main risks of navigation enviroment involved one segment waterway, tow bottlenecks, three hard sailing shoal and curve route, four type navigation function areas. Nature enviroment risks included strong wind, heavy fog, floodwater and water level changing. Safety management risks included that individual ships management’ risk, the imperfection of rules and establishment. anchorage grounds and their management had some problems.The dissertation made system safety evaluation to the Three George Dams water. By using AHP method and combining the practice of this area, the evaluation index system was established. There were 3 grades and 32 bottom indexes totally.Based on analyzing of accidents and dangerous cases, risk identify and expert questionnaire, the dissertation ascertained the distributing of risk level and the weight of factors. By using AHP and Fuzzy comprehensive methods, the dissertation gained the risk value of 2010 is 4.130. According to this results, the Three George Dams water’s safety state was ’higher risk’. Further more, the relation of safety and risk was judged by Set Pair Analysis method.According to the factors’ changing such as vessel standardization, dredge waterways and ship heizing mechanism edc. by 2015, the dissertation forecasted the Three George Dams water’s safety state in the future. The safety state will be ’common risk’. It shows that important establishments have vital contribute for system safety.The dissertation brought forward safety management countermeasures aimed at main risks of system. And it definited the safety management emphases. Analyzed the problems still existing, and made a expectation of study.