| Since the 1950’s, represented by computer science, the third technological revolution have spred across the world. Such kind of technologies have greatly changed the life mode of people and made the society enter to a new era. New emerging science and technologies(NESTs) can create a new industry and change the economic developmental mode. Because the technology developmental speed has changed very fast, in order to keep a good position in international competition, the governments should grasp the developmental trends of the technologies and accurately assess their commercial prospects. Therefore, as a developing country, how to identify the most promising technology from many new technologies and find a suitable direction from it has a significant meaning.This thesis is based on the U.S. Natural Science Foundation project "Revealing Innovation Pathways(Award No. 1064146)" and the Humanities and Social Science Project of Ministry of Education "Faced on Technology Innovation Pathways of NESTs: Using Nano-Enable Drug Delivery System as a Case Study(13YJC630042)". We focus on nano-enable drug delivery(NEDD) and get some important achievements.(1)This dissertation propose a model which can identify the hot topics of NEST, then we use NEDD to verify this model. Here, in order to find the characteristics of hot topics of NEST, we contrast and summarize some related concepts like "new technology", "high-technology", "new emerging technology", "hot topics of NEST" and figure out the difference among them. In addition, summarizing the developmental trend of NESTs in history can help us to identify the characteristics of hot topics accurately.In this model, we combine several methods like "case study", "workshop", "text mining" and "related mathematical models" to choose the suitable indexes. We combine qualitative and quantitative methods to proposes this model and introduce reliability model into fuzzy comprehensive assessment model to make the results more reliable. In this part, we identified 4 hot topics of NEDD. This result has been accepted by many domain experts.(2) Based on qualitative and quantitative information, we build a technological innovation pathway indentification model, then take solid lipid nanoparticles(SLN) as an example.In this part, we rely on the method of technology breakdown and SAO theory to identify the evolutionary process of SLN which is one major area of NEDD, then using TRM to visualize this process. In this model, we solved three problems: 1) based on technology breakdown theory, term clumping and PCA to identify the key technology clusters; 2) using SAO theory to find out the relationships among clusters;3) using technology roadmap(TRM) to visualize the evolutionary pathways. In this part, we use a variety of data processing and analysis methods and integrate information from three data sources to identify the technology developmental process. These results lay a solid foundation for choosing the most promising technological innovation pathway in next step.(3) Rely on mining the benifits and risks of hot topics and employing graph theory and net benefit theory, we establish a model for selecting the most promising technological innovation pathway. In this part, the dissertation creatively combines "the shortest path method" of graph theory and net benefit method to choose the optimal innovation pathway. Specifically, our study can be divided into three levels. Firstly, we identify the main developmental stages of SLN and clarify the risks and benefits of each stage. Secondly, we combine with the multi criteria decision making model and net benefit method to evaluate the value of risks and benefits for each stage. Finally, we base on graph theory to choose dynamic optimal path of technological development. This model not only identify the optimal innovation pathway, but also show the risks and benefits in each stage. This conclusion can help government or investors to make the effective measures to support the development of SLN industry. |
PDF Full Text Request