Study Of Agent-based Land Use Scenario Simulation In Xinbei District Of Changzhou City

The rapid industrialization and urbanization of China have deepened the conflicts of the land supply and demand. In this transition period, there occur many changes to the land utilization. Central and local governments should make prompt effective and scientific planning and control of land use to satisfy requirements of economic and social development. However, land use planning seldomly keep pace with land need fluctuation because of uncertable factors of social and economic growth. Researches on construction of a stimulation land planning model, as a simulation of land use changes, will enable land planning makers more sensible to future land use changes, and, to the largest extent, make land use planning and control change with social and economic growth. The land use planning can follow the growth of society and economy.Taking Xinbei district of Changzhou as the study case, based on the MAS and GIS technology, the paper, by using such analysis methods as correlation analysis, spatial relation and variability, discusses the characteristics and driving force of land utilization variation, sets different land use scenarios according to development strategies and characteristics of the study area, and makes quantitative analysis of land use scenarios to demonstrate the mainline of land use scenarios. Based on the above analysis, construct scenario simulation model, analyze simulation result, put forward feedback information of the scenario simulation model, for the references of land use planning’s decision.The main research content and the conclusion of the paper are as follows:1) Review and analyze the land use characters (1996-2009) in Xinbei district of Changzhou, and extract three important types of land use:cultivated land, construction land and rural residential land. The study, by application of typical Relation Analysis Method and Spatial Gridding Logistic Regression Analysis Method, has made quantitative analysis of these three types of driving forces and obtained the main influential driving forces for each land. Research shows that:The change of structure Xinbei district is increasingly complicated; reduction of agricultural land contributes most to the increase of urban land; In term of spatial arrangement, the change of land use types is greatest in the study areas of eastern or southeasten parts along the administrative region boundary, or the Yangtze River catchment.2) Based on the analysis of land use characters and driving forces, The study presents the connotation of land use scenarios, builds land use scenario’s chareacters system from three aspects which includes political chareacters, global chareacters and local spatial chareacters, and express land use scenario’s chareacters quantitatively. Express political chareacters quantitatively by orientation of district’s development and comprehensive land use planning, build the function of each land’s global chareacters, obtain each land’s local spatial chareacters xoefficients using GWR.3) Based on above research results, model of MAS is introduced to construct a Agent-based land use scenario simulation model, including, to study how to import the technology of MAS into land use simulation, analyze its application mechanism, choose the simulation platform, and build the model framework. Next, based on the framework of model, to build conceptual model includes conceptual modeling of regional environment system, conceptual modeling of agent system, conceptual modeling of gov-agent global controlling, and etc. Then, based on the conception model, model agent behavior and construct three agent models, including government-agent, dweller-agent and farmer-agent. At last, using the development platform of Eclipse+Swarm, realize the land use scenario simulation model. Taking land use of Xinbei district of Changzhou from 2006 to 2020 for background, the study has finally constructed and realized the land use simulation model in three scenarios.4) Taking present data of Xinbei district land use in 2006 and 2020 as simulating period, taking 2005 as the base period and taking 2009 as the target year of simulation, verify the rationality of model by spatial simulation degree between status in 2009 and result of simulation. Then, set three types of land use scenarios based on regional development strategy. Simulate the process of land use change, analyzes the result of simulation from three aspects which is spatial layout, level of intensive utilization and cultivated land protection, and bring forward advice of adjustment measures.