Study Of Simulation For Urban Land Expansion Based On GIS And MAS

The urban land expansion is a necessary consequence of social and economic development. In foreign countries, the industrialization had vastly promoted the progress of urbanization after the first industrial revolution. Traditional urban spatial pattern with family or workshop economic unit as main urban constructive scale disintegrated quickly. Urban spatial scale increased and quantity of city increased. The phenomenon caused wide and sustainable research on urban spatial changes. In China, since reform and opening-up, especially since21st century, with the fast development and accelerated increasing, urbanization has become one of the main factors that contribute to the social-economic development. American famous economist Joseph E. Stieglitz called the Chinese urbanization progress as:Two Major Cases that influence world process and change world face.Accompanied by the fast urbanization, varieties of urban problems become more and more complicated and have a significant impact on social-economic development. Therefore the urban spatial expansion, especially the time and space evolutionary character of urban land use changes, has become the important content of urban system research. In the system consists of human and environment, land use changes derive from the behavior of reconstruction and adaption by human individual. By the acceleration of micro-behavior in time and space scale, urban land use layout in a big scale comes into being at last. Human individual has activity, can learn and accumulate experience, and can change their behavior adaptively according to the transformation of environment. The motion of this system is described by the Complex Adaptive System Theory, that is, macroscopic character is formed by purposeful behavior of microscopic individual. At the same time, planning of macroscopic policy may influence behavior of individual and then influence the land use changes caused by the behavior. Therefore, the urban spatial expansion was the non-linear and constant interaction process between the microscopic agents and the environment. To understand the formation mechanism of the macro characteristic and explore the future path of urban spatial growth, we need to describe and express the behavior of the individual in detail, and simulate the urban land use pattern in a bottom-up process through the simulation of individual limited rational decision and behavior.The thesis selected Wujin district, which was located in the eastern of Changzhou that lied in China's most active economic zone of Yangtze River delta region, as the research area, and then carried out the agent-based simulation research on urban land-use spatial expansion. The main research content and the conclusion of the dissertation are as follows:(1) Study of the characteristics of urban land use expansion and the driving force analysis. This thesis analyzed the characteristic changes in the study area during the period1996-2009, and took the spatial statistics and spatial analysis methods to study the micro driving forces of urban land-use expansion. Studies had shown that the economic increasing, population growth, industrial restructuring and urbanization rate were the main driving forces.(2) Building the simulation model of urban land use expansion based on multi-agent. First, the behavior agent in the process of land use expansion were elaborated, including the relationship between individual behabior and urban land use pattern, classification of agent type and the relationship among agents. On this basis, the simulation model of urban land use expansion was built based on individual learning and individual spatial decision. Finally, combined with analysis of the effect characteristics of local spatial environment based on the geographically weighted regression model, the spatial transformation and decision model of land use type was realized.(3) Test of multi-agent based simulation of urban land use expansion. The simulation test of the evolution of the urban land of study area during2005and2009was done. And the test of the result of simulation was done from both global and local perspective respectively. The result shows that, the difference between simulation results and the actual results wasn't significant, but there are some differences in the local space. The analysis shows that the difference comes from the model's emphasis on the preferences in the location choice process and the experience of geographic spatial environment of use agent, but the explanatory power of sudden policy and industrial economic regulation in the reality was inadequate.(4) Application of simulation model of urban land use expansion. Combined with regional development strategies and land use strategies, clarify the overall situation of future economic and social development and land use, especially the urban spatial structure. Then the characteristic factors which influence the urban land's evolution were built from three aspects of policy planning, global economic and social development and local geospatial environment. On these bases, the main line of planning scenarios was built based on global economic and social development. And the regional urban land evolution was simulated under different scenarios. Finally, the comparative analysis of the simulation results under the three scenarios was carried out, and the specific regulation proposals were proposed about the future development, especially land use of study area.