The Trends Of Science Development Based On Metrical Analysis The Contents In Nature And Science During The20th Century

The description of the history of science development is one of the basic task of History of Science. So far, there are seldom studies on the characteristic and dynamic of science development systematically form the perspective of History of Science. Therefore, this paper focuses on the science during the20th century as a whole, and typically elects the outstanding two scientific journals——Nature and Science as a starting point for research. This paper adopts the method of metrical analysis and metrically analyzes the contents in Nature and Science from1901to2000respectively and compares the results for further. By displaying the microcosmic orbits of the history of science during the20th century, we will explore the trends of science development of the20th century, and in order to provide a reference to the development of science in the21st century.The basis of metrical analysis is setting the valid indicators for metrical object. The key of setting the indicators is the classifications of science for the paper. So firstly we study on the classification of science by dimension, and discuss the classification of science from the macro. At the same time we define and describe the science vocabulary involved in the paper. Secondly we study on the existing differences in national standard classifications of discipline and classifications of discipline in information resources from the microscopic. And we clarify the classification of science in theory, and these studies are the theoretical protection and the basic of the implementation analysis. The part is theoretical basis and practical guidance for the paper.Combining the classification of science involved in Nature and Science, we finally determine the indicators for metrical analysis, and clarify the profile of Nature and Science, the scope of the indicators, and the necessity and feasibility of the statistics.Metrically analyzing the contents in Nature and Science respectively is the focus and difficult of the paper. Dividing the contents in Nature into13categories and the contents in Science into11categories, we gain the classification statistics and the discipline distribution in chronological. And based on these primary data we make the disciplinary development graphs,columns and comparative graphs. Then we clarify the trends of the development of disciplines and discusses the various trends from the three categories of basic science, humanities and social sciences, and applied science based on the data, and compares the results to the relevant research at home and abroad. At last it is carried out the conclusion from Nature and Science that respectively reflect the trend of the development of science during the20th century.Then we comparatively study on the results of metrically analyzing the contents in Nature and Science, discusses the various trends from the three categories of basic science, humanities and social sciences and applied science, and compares the results to the relevant research at home and abroad. At last it is carried out the conclusion that reflects the trends of the development of science during the20th century.Reviewing the internal history of these disciplines, we survey the final from the metrically analysis results and the theoretical internal history analysis together. According to these analysis we explore the characteristics and trends of disciplines development in the20th century and provide predictive analysis to the development of science in the21st century. Analyzing the correlation between the physical hierarchical structure and science disciplines structure, we clarify the relevance, integrity, communion, and logical hierarchy in the development of science. And we gain the several views for the overall trends as follows:In the20th century physics is the guide of the science development and drive the development of basic science. In the second half of the20th century has become the era of life sciences; The development of Science in the20th century goes up as a whole, but there is a flourishing period, quiet period, and even stagnation and regression stages; The complete chain of the development of Science is discovering the basic science, inventing the applied science, changing the mode of human survive and the transformation of the humanities and social value system and so on. Based on the trends of the development of Science in the20th century, we provide predictive analysis to the development of science in the21st century as follows:Life science, information science, materials science and energy science will be the frontiers of science. Physics and life sciences will maybe have revolutionary change. During21st century we will give full consideration to the coordinated development of human and nature, a high degree of integration of basic science, applied science, and the humanities and social sciences. A new multidisciplinary development era will be generated during21st century.