Risk Assessments On Storm Surge And Coastal Zoning Management

Global climate change and rapid urbanization makes our country more exposed and more vulnerable to extreme ocean disasters. In the Chinese coastal region the economics are well developed with important industrial facilities, and these areas are likely affected by the typhoon storm surge and extra tropical storm surge disaster risk with increasing loss influence in large scale. Storm surge disaster risk assessment and regionalization management research are facing new environmental risk problems and challenges in the context of global climate change and sea level rise in the future. Storm surge disaster has become one of the main risk influence factors for the sustainable coastal development in our society. This paper will focus on storm surge risk as the research object. We will choose Shandong peninsula coastal region in China as the investigation areas. The data collection, mining and management are from published government agency reports and from collaboration with stations of Chinese marine environment observation centers. Based on the literature review of previous studies both domestic and international, we have tried to explore and establish a preliminary model of storm surge disaster risk assessment and coastal zoning management optimization. Results could be applied to help for setting up methodology of storm surge risk prevention programs as well as building up the technical support for a more comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation system in China.As the main Marine disaster which threats human lives and jeopardizes the coastal economic development in China. The risk factors of storm surge disasters consist of storm surge hazards, the vulnerability of hazard-affected body, the exposures as well as the hazards prevention capacity of the region, in which the last three factors constitutes the storm surge disaster vulnerability. After reviewing the research literature extensively both domestic and international, it shows that former researchers focus more on risk of storm surge disaster, and intensive works have been carried out on the topics. Studies on storm surge disaster vulnerability should be investigated with further studies. In this paper, the related concepts of storm surge disaster and risk have been expounded, the risk evaluation index system of storm surge has been built through the recognition of three storm surge disaster factors and it takes Qingdao as an example to establish the model of storm surge disaster risk zoning as described below. Firstly, works were carried out on data collection, acquisition, sorting, and analysis, we try to understand the characteristics of the changes and distribution of storm surge disasters in different time and space scales. Based on storm surge disaster risk factors, a risk evaluation index system is established. The plausibility and validation of the index system model were tested based on identification of storm surge disaster risk. Using cluster analysis methods the risk zoning classification were comprehensively studied, and adapting the methodology of the entropy, grey correlation analysis, fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation method quantifying the risks according to the locations. The application of entropy-gray-fuzzy combination qualitative quantitative method is deployed to analysis the risk zoning and risk priorities for nine districts of Qingdao coastal region in four different risk classifications. The model demonstrates the storm surge risk distributions and showing the differences in these regions. The model will provide scientific insights in the planning and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures for the investigated regions.In this paper different risk analysis methods are applied for establishing a risk assessment index system for storm surge, which is one of the main marine disasters. The coastal zoning management model is also developed based on the evaluation of risk distributions in different investigated locations. Results are summarized and compared with related research studies. The models advantages and limitations were also discussed. Future research directions and the coupling of storm surge disaster risk problems remain to be further explored in more details.