Research On The Impact Of China's Direct Investment To ASEAN On It's Export Trade

International trade and international investment are hot issues in international economic research.Trade activities and investment activities influence each other,but the direction and intensity of this influence relationship has not been determined.ASEAN is an important investment destination and trading partner of China.With the promotion of "The Belt and Road" policy,bilateral economic cooperation needs to be further deepened.With the rapid development of China's direct investment in ASEAN,the scale of China's export trade to ASEAN has declined,and the transformation and upgrading of export structure urgently needs to be addressed.Will China's direct investment in ASEAN affect the export trade? Will it affect the export structure? Is this effect a facilitation effect or an extrusion effect? How strong is it? Both will become issues that need to be further addressed to deepen bilateral economic cooperation.Aiming at the research objectives of this paper,this paper first summarizes the relevant research literature,according to the research conclusions of many scholars,summarizes the key points and innovation points of this paper.Then,based on the product life cycle theory,a dynamic equilibrium model is constructed for dynamic equilibrium analysis and comparative static analysis,and the impact of OFDI on export volume is discussed.At the same time,according to different motives of investment,it can be divided into resource seeking OFDI,efficiency seeking OFDI,market seeking OFDI and strategic asset seeking OFDI.Finally,the conclusion is drawn: the relationship between ofdi and export is determined by the demand and sunk cost of the host country;The four kinds of investment motives can affect the export structure through the corresponding transmission mechanism.Then,based on the current data of China's direct investment and export trade to ASEAN,the paper grasps the current development characteristics from the overall and local perspectives,and explores the dynamic evolution relationship between investment and export from the perspective of their development trend and correlation.Finally,after calculating the spatial dependence of China's investment activities and export activities to ASEAN,the spatial durbin model is constructed to empirically test the impact of China's direct investment to ASEAN on export trade.The final conclusions of this paper are as follows :(1)China's direct investment and export to ASEAN region have a positive radiation effect,which will not only affect the investment and export activities within the region,but also affect the surrounding region.According to the spatial correlation test,there is a positive spatial autocorrelation between China's direct investment and export trade to ASEAN under the weight of economy(capital measure).(2)the scale of China's exports to ASEAN is spatially concentrated,and the stock of China's direct investment in ASEAN is positively promoting the scale of China's exports to ASEAN.This kind of stimulative effect,not only act on the export trade of this region,also will radiate to circumjacent area at the same time.(3)the stock of China's direct investment in ASEAN has a significant positive effect on the export of labor-intensive products,capital-intensive products and resource-intensive products,among which the most significant effect is on labor-intensive exports.The stock of China's direct investment in ASEAN has short-term promoting effect and cross-regional radiation effect on capital-intensive exports,and its long-term cross-regional radiation effect is strong.For labor-intensive products,the regional promotion effect and crossregional radiation effect are positive but not significant.(4)China's exports to ASEAN are also affected by other economic,institutional and other factors.There is a "U" influence between institutional factors and export trade.The sound institutional environment of ASEAN countries has a significant positive pull effect on labor-intensive products and capital-intensive products,as well as a significant cross-regional spatial radiation effect.The spatial radiation effect of economic freedom on resource-intensive products is significantly negative,while the local effect and peripheral radiation effect on labor-intensive products are both negative and insignificant.The exchange rate level has a significant effect on the space radiation of resourceintensive products,and the long-term positive radiation effect is greater than the short-term radiation effect.Finally,in the previous analysis,this paper believes that we should start from the strategic aspect,through the adjustment of economic strategy layout,appropriately guide multinational enterprises to conduct direct investment,and finally achieve the goal of promoting the optimization and upgrading of export trade structure.