A Positive Study On The Grassland Degradation And Its Determinants In Inner Mongolia

Inner Mongolia is endowed with vast grassland. With a total area of 78.8 million square kilometers it ranks the second in all provinces in China. However, this grassland has been facing continued degradation due to natural and human influences. Particularly since the 1980's, this degradation has been escalating. Consequently, correctly evaluating the influencing factors on the grassland and mitigating its degradation have important implication for promoting the sustainable development of the pastoral areas.Climate change and human activities are the two important determinants, many qualitative results about how theses factors affect grassland degradation can be find in papers. Based on those qualitative results, thesis analyzes the degradation situation and the change of climate and human activities. The econometric analysis to the 33 pastoral counties and 21 semi-agricultural and semi-pastoral counties in Inner Mongolia is used to find out the effect of factors on grassland degradation. By using combined methodologies of both positive and normative, we separated and valued the different roles of climate change and human activities. At the same time, according to the possible changes of future climate and grassland evolvement, and combined with local ecological and economic characteristics, an analysis on reasonable measures and alternative development strategies for future grassland use and development in Inner Mongolia is conducted. The research findings can be used as references for making relating decisions for both the Inner Mongolia and the China's Central Government as well.The major results of this study include: Due to climate change and human activities, the grassland in Inner Mongolia has been facing escalating degradation. Given the diverse temperature and precipitation of all the 54 banners and counties, yearly average temperature has been significantly increasing, and this yearly average temperature and grassland degradation have a strong correlation. While there are obvious differences on population, livestock and its pattern, there are more human activities in most of the counties than before.This thesis estimated the impacts of both the climate change and human activities by using econometric models. Other things equal and on average, for every1℃increase in temperature, grassland degradation ratio will increase by 0.05; for every 1 unit increase in population density, grassland degradation ratio will increase by 0.527; for every 1 unit increase in percentage of rural population, grassland degradation ratio will increase by 0.156; for every 1 unit of over-grazing, grassland degradation ratio will increase by 0.037; for every 1 unit percentage increase in small-livestock population, grassland degradation ratio will increase by 0.53; compared with no-digging behaviors, grassland degradation ratio with-digging behaviors will increase by 0.127. According to these standards, the grassland degradation ratio in the 54 Inner Mongolia counties increases by 0.30 during the period from 1980 to 2000. Of which, human activities contributed for 52 percent, climate change contributes for 18 percent.Based on above-mentioned findings, lessons of the other courtries grassland use and the present situation of Inner Mongolia grassland, this thesis presents the following suggestions: firstly, building capacities of research and innovation on forage seeds by mobilizing all possible human and financial resources; secondly, raising livestock productivity through innovation; thirdly, stabilizing or reducing population in pastoral areas and strengthening training for herders; fourthly, making and implementing all laws and regulations regarding to grassland rehabilitation and strengthening the conservation and construction of grassland; and finally, actively studying the appropriate operational and organizational manners of livestock production based on the Household Responsibility System.