Study On System Evolution Of Jilin Auto Manufacturing

Economists have already realized the systematicness and complexity and evolution of industry evolution since Alfred Marshall, but due to the limited development of natural science and social science, the framework of complex system science has not been formed, therefore, the study on industry evolution based on the complex system theory has not been set up, and the mainstream economics, with new classical economics as its representative turns to be pale in explainning the complex system question. This article, based on the theory of evolutionary economics, try to analyze the evolution of the automobile manufacturing system of Jilin province by method of modern economics confluented with complex system science.As a complex sysytem, auto manufacturing has the characteritic of openness, imbalancess, nonlinear, multi-level, heterogeneity, dynamic self-orgnization, emergence, randomness and uncertainty. As an evolutionary system it also boasts of path dependence and locking phenomenon, therefore, path-breakthrough is needed. The evolutinary mechenism of auto manufacturing including self-orgnization and other orgniazation. The preconditon of evolution is the dissipative characteristic while the driving force is the relation of competition and coordination. The dominating force is the key technology as a order parameter, while the inner form of expression being random fluctution through hypercycle model while the outer form of expression being catastrophy and metamorphisis. The process of auto manufacturing industry evolution can be described as S-type curve, therefore, the systematic evolutionary model is built according to logistic equation which can be divided into the following stages namely, pre-soaring , soaring, maturity, declining period and the model has chaotic feature.Evidence analysis includes system summary and evolution of auto macturing of Jilin province.In the summary part, the whole system characteristic, the main structure and environment are discussed. First, with the analysis of complete atomobile output as an example together with the evolution model of automobile industry, the evolution process of the automobile manufacturing system of Jilin province between 1956-2007 has gone through the process of simulation equation only to find that the system is corresponded to S-type evolution characteristic of logistic equation.and just stepping in to the soaring stage. Futhermore, the structural decomposition of the system, the weighted curve is formed by car evolution curve and complete automobile evolution curve, with the car products at the transition period of pre-soaring stage and soaring stage and other automobile products at a stage from soaring to maturity. It is shown that the fractural characteristic existing in the system, but differnt parts have their own individual phsical feature and are replaceble mutually. This replacable relation will evolve and has certain rule. In the products structure of parts and components, the core technology of engine is still at a inferior situation and the producing process is unstable, need to be improved. In the part of industrial orgnization, the relation between leading enterprise and the whole system is analyzed. The out provice business extention make the structure of Jilin auto manufacturing system even more complicated and meanwhile, Jilin provice is fostering 5 biggest auto industry group, through leading funtion and other enterprise coordinative function to realize the perfection of the whole system. In the part of systematic enviroment analysis, enviroment provided strong material support, but because of its weakness in the openness of system compared with other areas, the communication between system and enviroment is hindered to a certain extent, thus the advantage of talents and material can not play a effective role. In the enviroment of supply and demand, the competition is increasingly fierce and gradually transfer to non-price factor competition, therefore, the upstream relative industry such as iron and steel and light metal and downstream area such as automobile sales and financial and credit sector and other infrastructure sector, petrol industry. All the above factors has great influence on Jilin auto manufacturing system and its evolution.In the analysis section of system evolution, It is discovered that the system of Jilin Auto Industry is in conformity with the fractal characteristics of status. On the basis of the transformation of the characteristics of system, the evolution process can be divided into the following phases: System formation phase; System closing phase; System updating phase; System complexing phase and System opening phase, which would be analyzed separately on the mechanism and motivation of the system evolution of each phase. And the system motivation diagrams of each phase are drew. Since the policy support as precursor and human resource, finance together with material resource as negentropy forming up Jilin Auto industry, the heter-organization from government is necessary during the system formation phase. The heter-organization gives the primary advantage of the system and it is also the foundation of the self-organization. In the system closing phase, the heter-organization is necessary in a certain extent, whereas it will influence the developing of self-organization of the system if the heter-organization can not recede and withdraw. In the system motivation phase, herter-organization will impel a negative feedback loop under the planning economy system, which restraints the formation of competition mechanism and technology progress and not only influences the system evolution of the present phase, but also barriers the following evolution of the system. Under the conduct of reform and open policy, the system enter into the phase of upgrading. The transition to market economy system complying with the trend of system evolution easily coordinates with the transition of technology, which will accelerate the transition of heter-organization into self-organization and upgrading of the product and invironment and make the whole system transit from the unordered and tangly status into a timely or functionally ordered and coordinating status. Led by the successful transition of the product, the system begun complexing, which appears as complexing of products, complexing of the communication between the system and invironment and complexing of the relationship between enterprise inside the system and others. It can not be simply recognized that a transition is purely positive feedback or negative feedback. Moreover the open, self-organizing and subsystem are integrated. The system relying on the previous path blocks the healthy evolving of the system, thus, a break-through of the present path is needed. WTO is the power for this break-through, which also accelerates the transition of the system to the phase of opening. Opening is a chance, which leads the enterprise to international markets, and open is also a challenge for the system, which appears as the capability gap between Jinlin Auto industry and international competitors in the world wide competition. The gap is in the adaptability to the opening, manufacturing of spare parts, quality of autos, quality of services, developing of new energy autos and creating ability of technology. And the solution of those gaps is the key points for the evolution of the system. To increase the competitiveness on those parts is an absolute requirements of the system evolution. In brief, the system of Jilin Auto industry has been completing and developing continuously, meanwhile, there are new problems along with the evolution in every phase, and those problems will influence the following evolution via the relying on the path. The institution and the transition of technology which complying with the law of evolution can accelerate the evolution of the system, whereas static and segmentary institution can just block the healthy and continuous evolution of the system.To summarize the above analysis, this paper brings up the systemetic evolution industry policy of optimizing Jilin automanufacturing industry and points out that the enhancement of systemetic openness should be based on system and evolution concept by using culture fostering and industry chain globlization, through policy influence on both supply and demand side as well as infrastructure support, encouraging the production and consumption of new energy auto, constructing the sustainability of systemetic evolution under the guidance and assistance of government, playing the leading role of Faw, perfect the auto manufacturing group innovate the orgnization of systemtic industry, through development of parts and components and logistics and service to perfect products structure in systems. After knowing the right relation between self-innovation and scale economy and paying attention to the application of various innovation style encouraging technology innovation through constructing all round innovative service. Through weakening impulsive governmental measure, changing the original unreasonable favor policy, innovate ecnomic measures, enables the government to change its managing purpose from providing industry protection to fostering competitive advantages and improve industrial managing mode, eventually providing strong assurance to the healthy evolution of auto manufacturing industry in Jilin.