| Due to the inherent systematicness,complexity and evolution of open economic activities,the research paradigms of traditional economics characterized by linearity and equilibrium often fall in vain.Whereas,in the era of globalization,open economy plays an important role in a country’s economy system,which is urgently supposed to have an in-depth understanding of its complex relationship and evolutionary law.However,most of the current researches start from a single open economic element,and each of them is uncorrelated with the others.The researches are fragmented,and the quantitative research method is mainly based on the econometric model.Thus forms at least three pairs of contradictions with the grand development needs of the open economy:(1)Huge and systematic open economy with fragemented researches;(2)Non-linear and complex open economy with linear and simplistic status of researches;(3)Important position of open economy with the insufficient support of academic researches.Therefore,it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to carry out in-depth research on open economy from a systematic,complex and evolutionary multi-dimensional perspective and paradigm,especially for China,which has experienced more than 40 years of "dividend" in the development of open economy,and has formed a large-scale complete system covering over industry,trade,investment and finance,and is now facing more and more disturbance and deterioration of the external environment.We should urgently take the general theory of complex system as the guidance,synthesize the latest economic development achievements,and deeply and comprehensively analyze the economic development to make clear open economy’s complex attributes and evolution law quantitatively,so as to find the way of scientific orderly evolution in the complex internal and external environment.In view of this,this paper takes the system theory and complex system theory,evolutionary economics,complex adaptive system theory,synergetics,self-organization and other organization theory etc as the theoretical guidance,and system dynamics and agent-based computational economics as the main research methodology.Based on the analysis of the connotation,relationship,structure,characteristics and functions of open economic complex system,the internal mechanism of its evolution is analyzed from the micro and macro perspectives.Following the rigorous research paradigm,the quantitative analysis platform of agent-based computational economics model is gradually established from the micro perspective,and the quantitative analysis platform based on system dynamics and multi-objective programming coupling model is established from the macro perspective.Then,the detailed policy simulation experiments are carried out aiming at the key points in the evolution life cycle of the open economy complex system,and the specific policy measures are put forward.Finally,a multi-dimensional policy system framework of promoting the development of Chinese open economy complex system is proposed based on the internal mechanism logic of "policy-network-agent-emergence".The results show that:(1)The open economic system is a complex system,which must be guided by the systematic thinking and paradigm of system theory and complex system theory.The open economy complex system is evolutionary,which must be analyzed based on the idea of evolution and using the relevant theoretical tools of system evolution.In view of the complexity and complex adaptive nature of open economy complex system,it is necessary to combine the study from two perspectives of "from bottom to top" and "from top to bottom".The development of complex system theory and the latest achievements of computer simulation technology,computer algorithm and big data technology make the study of quantitative model from two perspectives technically feasible.(2)The evolutionary mechanism analysis based on micro perspective and ACE /MAS / ABM evolutionary model research show that the orderly evolution and development of open economy complex system must be the result of agents adapting to the changes of internal and external environment and co-evoluting.Based on the simulation research of agent-based computational economics evolution model,many conclusions with practical significance is draw,such as the complex system of open economy has the characteristics of self-organizing emergence,opening is only the external cause of system evolution,the principle of reasonable allocation of system mutation rate and self-replication rate,and the bottom-line coping strategies under the extreme deterioration of external environment etc.(3)The analysis of evolution mechanism based on macro perspective and the research of SD-MOP evolution model show that the growth of open economy is more systematic than the simple superposition of single factor growth,which is the cumulative result of positive feedback formed by the long-term cooperation between system elements or subsystems.The development of Chinese open economy for more than 40 years and the empirical research based on macroeconomic data fully verify this conclusion.The empirical simulation research of SD-MOP coupling evolution model not only proves that "familiar" Chinese open economy is a system mathematically based on the existence of system solution;it also reveals the dynamic evolution mechanism and time series evolution process of the interaction of investment,consumption,export,import,exchange rate,M2,IFDI,OFDI and other factors driving Chinese sustained economic growth after China’s accession to WTO in 2001.The simulation study of policy mix shows that the combination of tightening monetary policy and expanding fiscal policy is the most ideal policy mix path at present.The simulation study on the special issue of trade war shows that China still has enough space to adjust its macro-economic policy portfolio under the condition that the United States imposes tariffs on all Chinese goods.By taking specific policy measures,such as improving personal and social investment and income to enhance the pulling force of consumption on the economy,increasing foreign investment along the "one belt,one road" and in other blanker markets,proper appreciating of RMB at the right timeit etc.,is still possible to ensure that Chinese economic growth,balance of payments and other macroeconomic indicators remain in a good balanced path.(4)Policy simulation research shows that the policy system should be also evolutionary,and targeted policy regulation must be applied according to the different life cycle of different development modes and opportunities of the open economic complex system,so as to obtain the best policy regulation effect with the minimum cost.There are many kinds of policy combinations,which are all possible to achieve the desired goals,we should give priority to the systematic policy scheme with the lowest policy cost according to the actual situation.By controlling the combination of endogenous factors in the system,it is theoretically possible to promote the evolution of the system to emerge a relatively good system structure state and pattern which takes into account both scale and structure.In order to achieve scientific macro-control,it is necessary to establish a meticulous(dynamic)data monitoring system for macro-economic indicators and meso economic indicators of related industries,so as to provide objective and detailed data for scientific research and decision-making.In order to promote the development of Chinese open economy system,with a logical framework of "policy-network-agent-emergence" as the internal mechanism as well as the policy goal of promoting "fine,scientific and orderly evolution under the general pattern",a multi-dimensional policy system in four aspects should be built,including top-level policy system design,collaborative government institutional mechanism and specific institutional policy arrangements,enhancing the vitality and competitiveness of the agents,and promoting the emergence of a new pattern of qualitative change through internal and external coordination. |
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