Impact Of Climate Change On Chinese Grain Security And Countermeasures

Nowadays, it is acknowledged that our climate is changing violently day after day which is represented by global warming. As a country with quite a large population, it is one of the main targets in agriculture policy made by our government to ensure the safety in food supply. Problems in food safety in China is the focus for scholars both domestic and abroad all the time, however, most of their study has ignored the influence by climate change. This dissertation aims to evaluate the impact caused by climate change on grain output in China since the implement of the open door policy, estimate the impact from climate change on food safety in the middle 21st century and propose sensible policy advice.The emphases of this dissertation are the following two: one is to estimate the impact from climate change on grain yield, including both impacts in the history and in the middle 21st century. The other is to forecast the grain output and demand in the future, and on the basis of that I estimate the impact from climate change on food safety in the middle 21st century, at last, give some advice.In the study I performance a model to rice, wheat and corn respectively from 1979 to 2007 in 14 provinces with the classic C-D function. In forecasting the impact in the middle 21st century I choose the gray model GM( 1,1 )because there are more gray factors in long term, forecasting respectively grain output and demand in middle and long term.The following conclusions are drawn from this study:1. The rising of temperature, increasing of precipitation and hours of sunshine bring negative impact on the production of grain, and the significance varies among rice, wheat and corn.2. Generally speaking, the influence of climate change on China's grain production is positive since the reform and opening up—has made contributions to the higher productivity of food nearly 3 percent. This mainly due to the timely adjustment of the layout of rice and take advantage of climate change to make a positive contribution to the rice production.3. The issue of our country's grain security is optimistic recent years without consideration of the international market and country store, and there is no serious problem of grain security last decade. The situation of domestic production can not meet the consumption start at 2017, and the gap expands rapidly, primarily due to the great growth of corn consumption. In the long run, the issue of grain security is an alarming problem.4. Chinese grain security experience the phases of edible grain security—feed grain security—industrial grain security. Having got through the problem of edible grain security, now we are in the phases of feed grain security, and the problem of industrial grain security will stand out since 2017.5. Either under the A2 or B2 climate scenario, the climate change of mid-21st century would bring serious impact to Chinese grain output, especially the case for corn, which will have a badly output reduction; the adaptation to climate change of rice is better than other grain.6. The negative impact of climate change on grain production could be much reduced for China with such vast territory and quite a lot of climate types by sound agricultural layout and more technology.In this dissertation, the innovation may be mainly lie in:Firstly, the topic selected is pioneering and exploratory. There are quite some research concerning about the impact of climate change on water resources, agricultural systems and crop production, but rare about grain security, especially domestic ones. This study has been concerned about the impact of climate change on Chinese grain security since reform and opening up and in the mid-21st century. From this point of view, the dissertation is trying to fill in the study blank.Secondly, the angle of view is unique. The existing researches are mainly from natural sciences field. It is just ten year of studying the impact of climate change on grain producing internationally, so the research production is comparatively rare. This study is from economic sciences field with economic approaches.And lastly, the research approaches used in the dissertation are innovative. Performing production function approach to evaluate the impact of climate change on Chinese grain security, which take into account regional differences and institutional changes, thereby building a panel data with two set of dummy variables; using gray models to forecast the consumption of Chinese grain in the long run, carrying through residual sequence cycle amendment to reflect the influence of long-term factors such as climate change, which are innovation of approaches.The dissertation found that it is possible for China with such vast territory and quite a lot of climate types to avoid the impact of climate change on grain production by sound agricultural layout and more technology even make full use of the benefit from climate change. Therefore the major and significant problem for our agricultural department is that how to adjust the agricultural layout at home and how to adjust our international trade layout to adapt climate change.Moreover, international negotiations were, are and will be going on, and low carbon economy has acquired much agreement. National economy and industrial construction will be adjusted to adapt climate change. The policy and measure aiming to decrease carbon emission are bound to cause rise in price of pesticide, chemical fertilizer and agricultural machine and then bring more difficult to the household in disadvantage. Therefore how to evaluate the impact of climate change on household' benefit and how to protect their benefit are quite worth discussing in the future as well.