A Study On The Urban Logistics System Planning

Many cities in our country have gradually realized the important role of modern logistics system in pushing the development of urban economy and improving urban competitiveness along with the higher status of logistics in the society and the acceleration of China urbanization process.Some cities have started to plan or construct urban logistics system.It is not more than 10 years before the definition of "urban logistics",the research about urban logistics is very deficient,the theory lags behind the practice seriously.Under the situation,it is not only of great strategic significance but also an urgent realistic task to study the urban logistics system planning.The topic of the dissertation is put forward based on the background,and the aim is to promote the rationality and scientificity of Chinese urban logistics planning.The details are given as bellows:1.The dissertation summarizes the concepts and characteristics of urban logistics, gives the new concept of the urban logistics according to the developing trend of urban logistics and the practical development of Chinese urban logistics.Then the concept and structure of urban logistics system are given.The dissertation also summarizes the practice and research status of urban logistics system planning systematically at home and abroad,puts forward the the framework of urban logistics system planning,then designates the relationship between each part.2.The dissertation analyzes the characteristics and difficulties of urban logistics demand forecasting,points out two critical ways to improve the forecasting accuracy.One way is to use combination forecasting method to synthesize some different kinds of forecasting models, the other way is to use seasonal forecasting model to cope with the periodical characteristic of logistics volume time series data.So,the dissertation puts forward the logistics volume periodical forecasting model based on combination technique,the combination modes includes fixed weight and variable weight.In the forecasting process,the dissertation makes a certain modifications to each single forecasting model,therefore improves the forecasting accuracy.The seasonality of the time series is identified by Fourier analysis method.In the process of Holter-winter forecasting model,the best smoothing parameters are found by iterative method.In the process of seasonal RBF neural network forecasting model,the dissertation uses interpolation way to reconstruct the sample set,so as to improve the generalization ability of neural network;gives a method to determine the input dimensions of the neural network based on embedding theory and G-P algorithm,so as to reduce the casualness of determining the input dimension priviously;uses the computer program to search the two important parameters in the two-dimension space;ect.The analysis of example proves the effectiveness of the model.3.The dissertation classifys the urban logistics joints into three levels,uses "logistics park,logistics center,distribution center" to construct the urban multi-layer logistics joints system.The spatial distribution and quantitative relation of urban logistics joints are determined by the rule of minimizing the whole city logistic fees based on forecasting the logistics demand of urban logistics joints.So,the dissertation establishs three mathematical models for urban logistics toword network,urban logistics inverse network and urban logistics closed network.For the above three models,the dissertation gives the logistics net topological structure,hypothesis,objective function and numerical example respectively.The distribution freight volume of commodity and wastes between the different levels of the logistics joints are calculated by logistics demand four-stage forecasting method.The three mathematical models are solved by modified Genetic Algorithm respectively,the crossover rate and mutation rate of Genetic Algorithm are given by dynamic parameter control strategy so as to imporve the performance of Genetic Algorithm.4.Based on the systematically summarization of the connotation,characteristics, functional requirements and construction modes of the urban logistics public information platform,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo logistics informationization,the dissertation constructs an urban logistic information platform with harbour as the herald taking Ningbo for example.The dissertation emphatically studies logical architecture,function module and building procedures of the platform,so as to make the platform be the best information joint part between the harbor and the city.5.Based on the systematically summarization of the developing status and trend of logistics policy at home and abroad,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo logistics policy,the dissertation constructs an urban logistic policy platform taking Ningbo for example.After analyzing the status and basic goal of the urban logistics policy environment,the dissertation puts forward a set of urban logistics policy system which is relatively more complete and more adaptive to the regional logistics center city.The urban logistics policy system can be come down to six parts,including standardized management policy for the logistics market,supporting policy for logistics industry,coordination mechanism of the urban logistics,security policy of the urban logistics infrastructure and information platform,the favorable policy for the logistics enterprises,talent training and ensuring policy for urban logistics. 6.Based on the systematically analysis of the trend of the logistics market subject cultivating,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo habor logistics subject cultivating,the dissertation puts forward the general idea,cultivation model,and a set of systematic and feasible suggestions to the harbor city logistics market subject cultivating taking Ningbo for example.About the choosing and evaluating the logistics enterprises,the dissertation constructs a set of relatively more comprehensive and appropriate evaluation index system,and uses analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to choose and evaluate the modern third-party logistics provider.Finally,an application example is given.In addition,the logistics capability maturity model is build to provide evidence for the logistics enterprise to search the shortage and improve the service.At last,after summing up the main conclusions and innovative points of the dissertation. the problems needing further research are pointed out.