| The pig industry is still dominated in the structure of China's animal husbandry, the proportion of pork 65%(2005 and 2006). According to information from the Fourth World Fork Meeting held by World Meat Organization in 2007, the pork output from China(51.97 million ton) account for 50.1% in the output of world in 2006, located in first place. In addition, The pig industry have played an irreplaceable role in many aspects, such as the expanding rural employment, increasing the income of farmers, promoting the development of agriculture and related industries, revitalizing rural economy and so on. Therefore, the pig industry's stability and development is not only related to China's animal husbandry, but also related to agricultural development, rural construction and fanners incomes, further related to the national economy's sustainable and stable development.Under the law of supply and demand, the price of hog showed cyclical state. In recent years, the fluctuation cycle of hog price has been extended, with increasing range. The price fluctuations caused the many farmers to adjust production, resulting in output into the cycle of "shortage" and "excess", which aggravated price fluctuations. So the fluctuations of price and production is the most important characteristics of pig industry in China, which not only affects the interests of the producers, but also affected the welfare of consumers, having a negative impact to the unbalanced development of the national economy. Therefore, the price fluctuation of hog is the core issue of industrial development, the research to which have very important theoretical and practical significance.This thesis aims to study the characteristics and causes of the hog price fluctuations after China's reform and opening up. Starting from the historical data, China's hog market fluctuation is described and analyzed to grasp the characteristics of price fluctuation; The main factors inducing fluctuations are analyzed to clear the affecting ways, affecting mechanism of all the major factors and the affecting degree of a number of factors.In order to achieve above aims, a combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are used. On the base of the price fluctuations theory and references analysis, the characteristics and causes of China's hog price fluctuations is studied, in order to explore the measures to alleviating China's hog price fluctuation. Specific methods for the study: Based on historical data or survey data, China's hog fluctuations characteristics is describe(including the overall features and geographical features on output fluctuations and price fluctuations); the single factor is analyzed to clear the affecting ways, affecting mechanism, then multiple regression model is used to analyze affecting degree of a number of factors. Take price skyrocketing of hog in 2007 for example, the result and the impact from various factors is analyzed. All of which aims to bring about workable Countermeasures and suggestions to relieve China's hog price fluctuations.The main content, methods and conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1) The content of short-term fluctuations and long-term fluctuations is defined by using the "trend decomposition", the "speed" and the "trend decomposition" is used respectively to measure the short-term fluctuations of pig prices and production. A description and Analysis on the overall features fluctuation of hog output and price fluctuations showed that: the price fluctuations level is higher than that of output fluctuations. By calculating variation index and the coefficient of variation(on behalf of long-term fluctuation), the same conclusion can be showed. Put the ratio of variation of price and output into the same coordinates to analyze the interdependence between the two, similar reversal change trend in general can be seen. Which is a useful complement to the past study.(2) Use the "trend decomposition" to calculate the variation index, with which the regional fluctuation characteristics of the output and price are described and analyzed. At the same time, variance decomposition method is used to analyze the impact that the different regions, provinces give the gross output and internal relations. The results showed that: the regions to export hogs have a higher output fluctuation level and a lower price fluctuation level, especially less developed areas such as the Northeast and Southwest areas; the provinces with large output or with higher output fluctuation level have greater impact on regional output; the provinces with small output have weaker impact on regional output fluctuations; Most of the main sales provinces with small output have a higher price variation index, the main producing provinces have a lower price variation index. The research of this part includes some innovative contents.(3)With the theory of internal transmission and external shock, the causes and mechanism of hog price fluctuations are analyzed. the models and theoretical analysis are combined to analyze the causes and mechanism of all influencing factors. The internal factors include the special growing process of hogs, producers' supply, the cost of production and interests distribution of the industrial chain; The external factors include the impact of the epidemic (unexpected events), the macro-control measures, the prices of substitutes, the income levels etc.(4)The multiple regression model is used to have the empirical research on main factors affecting prices of hogs. Take skyrocketing prices of hogs in 2007 as an example, analysis of the causes and the impact on life and society are analyzed. Based on supply and demand, the main factors is selected to analyze the extent of influencing price. The results showed that corn prices (on behalf of input prices) is the most important factors affecting the price of hogs. Its marginal impact is the largest. In addition, the price of piglets is a greater impact. The expected producer prices and prices of substitutes have a weak impact. The epidemic has a negative marginal impact on the price of hogs from the demand. At the same time, the non-synchronous step of the demand and supply strengthens the extent of the price fluctuations, to have a serious impact on the pig industry.(5) Based on the above analysis, some effective measures and specific measures are brought out to ease the price fluctuations of hogs. Including strengthening the guidance of macroeconomic policy, strengthening the construction of the government's macroeconomic control mechanisms; accelerating the construction of pig disease prevention and control system; improving the national macroeconomic monitoring and warning systems; accelerating the development of "hog futures" market; speeding up the change of pig production patterns and so on. These measures will have a very positive practical significance to curb sharp fluctuations of hogs price.
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