Energy Consumption And Economic Development Of Relations Research

Energy is an essential material basis for human survival and development,atpresent energy and economic development have become an indivisible whole. Energyis a basic element of the national economy,the efficiency of energy use andreasonable energy consumption is in relation to the socio-economic sustainabledevelopment,the excessive growth of energy consumption and energy inefficiencieswill hinder the socio-economic sustainable development.This dissertation uses energy economics and economic development as basictheory,analyzes the relationship between Shanghai's energy consumption andeconomic development. Studies and analyzes the relationship between energyconsumption and economic growth,industrial structure,socio-economic welfare,economic and environmental development based on the main use of econometricanalysis,structural analysis,the target system and other methods;then further usesanalysis of scenarios of economic development,and predicts future energyconsumption demand;finally analyzes energy-saving to feasibility and energy-savingway under the goal of sustainable development. The main thesis and conclusions areas follows:Firstly,this dissertation puts forward a theoretical basis and theoreticalframework,sets forth concepts and related theories of energy consumption andeconomic development.Secondly,to standardize the method of econometric,testing the relationshipbetween energy consumption and economic growth in Shanghai,the VAR analysisshows that energy has become the restrictive factors of production to the process ofeconomic growth,which can not be completely replaced. Cointegration analysis ofenergy consumption and economic growth shows that they have long-term relevanceand coherence,Granger causality test has confirmed with a two-way causalrelationship between them:not only economic growth causes the increase of energyconsumption,energy consumption,in turn,affects economic growth. Throughempirical time series analysis of power consumption,energy consumption of threeindustries and economic growth,results show that the power consumption,theprimary industry,tertiary sector energy consumption and economic growth have thelong-term existence of cointegration.Thirdly,through the establishment of energy intensity of the decompositionmodel,and the use of quantitative analysis of time series data,this dissertationanalyzes the changes of industrial structure and departmental structure in industry tothe impact of the direction and extent of the energy intensity. The results show that,whether the changes in structure of industrial or departmental has a certain influenceto energy intensity change,but the contribution of structural changes in the share ofcontribution is far less than the share of efficiency Change,and in some years thestructural changes hinder the decline in energy intensity.Fourthly,this dissertation Studies the relationship between Shanghai's energyconsumption and the variables of socio-economic welfare (per capita GDP,consumption patterns and income distribution),energy consumption is highly relative to per capita GDP growth,changes in consumption patterns and income distribution.Finally,sets up the cointegration model for energy consumption and socio-economicwell-being index,results show that Shanghai's energy consumption andsocio-economic welfare is of the existence of long-term cointegration.Fifthly,through the establishment of specific target system for energy,economyand environment,and the use of principal component analysis,this dissertation arrivesat the development level of energy,economic,environmental systems and also thelevel of integrated development in Shanghai,analysis shows that Shanghai's energy,economic and environment development are at ever-increasing level,but onlyimprove slightly in recent years. Based on the evaluation index and the use of formulaof coupling degree of coordination,calculates the degree of coordination of energy,economic and environmental development. And now,energy,economic andenvironmental development in Shanghai has reached a state of well-coordinateddevelopment.Sixthly,based on the scenario analysis and forecasting of Shanghai's futureeconomic development,the use of regression analysis combined with scenariosimulation,elasticity model and combination prediction models,this dissertationpredicts Shanghai's energy demand in short-term 2010 and long-term 2015 and2020,then compares and analyzes the prediction results of three prediction methods.Finally,this dissertation uses the scenario analysis of the future energy demandin Shanghai under sustainable development goals,and sets energy intensity andenergy elasticity coefficient in future based on scenario analysis,also concretelyanalyzes the feasibility of energy-saving and energy-saving ways. Focusing onindustrial,construction and transportation,studies energy status,analyzesenergy-saving feasibility,and proposes energy-saving ways.