Assessment And Empirical Research Of Genuine Economic Growth With A Sustainable Economic Welfare

The world economy is under continued depression from 2010, the desire to govern the economy becomes more and more strong by governments, and fiscal and monetary policy tools are the general methods, such as Quantitative Easing Policy in USA. However, what’s the situation of the economy on earth? Just only referring GDP data is criticized. The arguments last a long time in theoretical and academic circle, mainly on the GDP items are not consider the social economic welfare increase and environmental loss. In fact, GDP measures the total market values of final goods and services within an area during a given period and has an obvious characteristic of the times, which shows that the more goods and services the more social welfare. When countries enter into mid or high income ranks, the measurement on welfare loss and environmental pollution cost is beyond the GDP statistic scope, therefore the economy needs a new index to inflect the growth.China has entered into the middle-income rank, extensive economic growth mode with “first pollution then control” must change into sustainable economic growth. In 18 th CPC National Congress, an important issue is about “how to measure the economic growth correctly”, which reflects the attention that evaluating the economic growth correctly. Some scholars put forward that “golden GDP”(GDP per capita) substitutes GDP, however the golden GDP also can’t solve the problem that GDP facing. This study constructs a new GDP substitute which based on above situation to do empirical research. This study is based on theory of economic sustainable development and points out the theoretical and practical value of the development of sustainable economic and welfare. This study mainly focuses on the following two topics:First, how to evaluate the genius economic growth? At present, using GDP as the only reference of economic growth evaluation is widely disputed, therefore, this study puts forward the double evaluation system for economic growth. Taking the universality and operability of the economic growth evaluation index into consideration, this study takes the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare(ISEW) indicator as economic quality growth assessment and the GDP as economic quantitative growth assessment. Furthermore, we establish the tanq evaluation system on the basis of ISEW and GDP, and make the evaluation on provincial level for our country.Second, how to solve the three gaps in economic growth? Income difference, regional difference and industrial difference are the main problems of the current economic growth, based on the evaluation of genius economic growth, we do the empirical study using the statistical data, the simultaneous equations models and spatial econometric panel data models.According to the research mentality and the research targets, the main contents are as follows:At first, focusing on the GDP arguments, this study classifies and strong-weak analyzes the GDP substitutes which provides the theoretical basement of sustainable economic welfare index(ISEW). On this basis, we calculate the ISEW for China, and the calculation for environment loss is one of the key and difficult points, we combine the orient distance function and intelligence algorithm to estimate the shadow prices for pollutants effectively, and apply it in the environment loss calculation. Then we set ISEW as the index of economic quality growth and GDP as the index of economic quantity growth, and propose a tanq assessment system to study the genuine economic growth deeply.Then the empirical study on genuine economic growth within overall and area. The empirical study of economic growth under the welfare constraints establishes simultaneous equations for ISEW and GDP, conclusions showed that the impacts of ISEW and GDP on net family benefit were different, which GDP added the net family benefit and the ISEW reduced it. Moreover, ISEW had a negative effect with environment cost but the GDP had a positive effect. The empirical study on population, resources and environment under the restriction of welfare sustainable development. Taking economic welfare sustainable development as the target, we considered impacts of the population, resource and environment on sustainable economic growth. Spatial panel data model showed that resource had an obvious spatial effect on economic growth, and population had hinder on economic growth, and environment had a negative effect on economic growth.At last, according to the conclusions by empirical study, this study makes some useful suggestions and applications, including improving the government financial spending to increase the economic welfare of families, to develop resource industry with a sustainable economic welfare and so on. Further research directions are presented on this basis.