| Since the publication of the BrundLandt's report "Our Common Future"(Word Committee of Environment and Development of UN) in 1987, especially after the Conference of Environment and Development of UN in Brazil in 1992, sustainable development has become a guiding and a principle strategy of action for all countries in the world. The study about methods of quantitative appraising of sustainable development has become hot topic and a forward position since 90's.Since sustainable state is not unchangable.It is changing and being probed over the time.It has no the last state.Hence the degree of coordination, which is used to describ the situation of coordination, should also be changing with the time and space.Methods that existed are not only very abstract,unoperable and hard to extend and use in practice, but they all have neither studied the selecting of reference value, which can be used to compare the coordinative state of different areas at a period of time horizontally, nor of an area at different time vertically.Development is endless.Coordinative develpoment and coordinative state has no absolute standard. It is dynamic and relative. It is meanless if we only give an quantitative appraising about its coordination of population, economical development and eco-environment at a special time or at a special area. The degree of coordination is only an algebra value without any dimension, and it is meanless. Only we analysis comparely by taking several different areas at a special time or saveral periods of time for a special area as reference, can we get relative mean of quantitative appraising value. Hence, we must evaluate the coordinative state of population, economical development and eco-environment vertically and horizontally. (1)Horizontal apppraising is to evaluate coordinative state of population, economical development and eco-environment of several differental areas, so that areas can be compared with reference which coming from other areas and we can find the gap and problem which existing between a special area and others. (2)Vertical apppraising is to evaluate coordinative state of an area at deferent periods of time, so that we can find problem existing.The main purpose of this thesis is to select a multi—goal decession model, which can reflect the coordinative degree of population, economic development and eco-environment system. Once the model being used, we can get conference value and coordination degree value, which are gotten by comparison among different areas horizontally or by comparison among different periods time for a special area vertically.In chapter 2-4 of the thesis, material factors, which effect the coordination of population,economic development and eco-environment system, are studied。In chapter 2, two VAR models are used to study the inter-active mechanism between increasing rate of population and economical development, and between the level of urbanization and economical development.At last, the dynamic response routes of them have been gotten. In chapter 3, cluster method is used to probe the inter-active mechanism between population and eco-environment system. In chapter 4, the thesis studies the inter-active mechanism between economical development and eco-environment system by thinking analysising, and get nonlinear program model and multi-goal program model which gives the clue for further study of coordinative program of an area. The studies of three chapters above mentioned give the effects of all material factors to the coordination of three systems. It is helpful for the settmg up of indicators and for the determining the positive or negative attribute of all the third layer indicators.In chapter 5, nonmaterial factors that affect the coordination of three systems are analysised. After that, inframarginal analysis is used and gets nonlinear program model, which is about way how the systems of population, economical development and eco-environment go towards coordination and gets equal value conditions of three systems, basing on external transaction cost. The result is also helpful for the setting up of indicators and determining the positive or negative attribute of all the third layer indicators.At first of chapter 6, relative indicators are set up on the base of the study in chapter 2-5, and positive or negative attribute of all them are defined. Then the key point and main object of the thesis is given here. The model wants to apprase coordinative degree of an area by a decission analysing method, that is Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution.The thesis ,using datas almost 3,000 from 30 provincesand areas in 2003, gives material study, and gets reference value horizontally and the value of coordinative degree of XinJiang.The thesis also ,using datas from Xinjiang between year 2000 and 2004, gets reference value vertically and the value of coordinative degree of Xinjiang.In chapter 7, basing on the result of chapter 6, the thesis gives some countermeasures and suggests, which leading the systems of population, economical development and eco-environment in Xinjiang to coordination.At last, the results of the thesis is given and think about further study about the relative problems of this thesis is listed.The studt is supported by NSFC (70363001)... |
