Research On The Emergency Logistics Considering The Reliability And Time-varying In The Earthquake Disasters

Earthquake disaster is the most severe one of all disasters, which has caused huge losses to human beings. Earthquake disasters happened in China accounted for half of all the earthquake disasters in the world. It was reported that the death caused by earthquake disaster accounted for54%of all the death caused by natural disasters from1949to2000in China. When a great earthquake disaster happens, in the disaster area, a lot of relief supplies are required to maintain the survival of the survivors, the treatment for the injured, epidemic prevention, and disaster area reestablishment in the disaster area, which are aiming to reduce the loss and the impact of the disaster. Many problems of the emergency logistics were exposed in the process of all previous earthquake disaster rescue, such as in the Wenchuan earthquake in2008and the Yushu earthquake in2010in China. Therefore, it is of great significance to studying emergency logistics for earthquake disaster rescue.Considering the characteristics of earthquake disasters, this dissertation investigates some problems related to the emergency logistics for earthquake disaster rescue from the perspecives of system science, using system time-varying theory, system reliability theory, possibility theory, graph theory and networks and so on. The main research contents are as follows:(1) The concepts including disasters, earthquake, earthquake disaster, emergency management, emergency logistics, are introduced and defined. The characteristics of earthquake disaster are analyzed.(2) The concept of earthquake disaster emergency logistics system is analyzed and defined. The difference between earthquake disaster emergency logistics and other logistics was analyzed. The elements, the organization structure, functions, operation processes and the life cycle of earthquake disaster emergency logistics system are described. The supporting system for the earthquake disaster emergency logistics system operation is analyzed.(3) The demand index of the relief supplies in the earthquake disaster emergency logistics is analyzed. From the perspective of the time-space, the characteristics of the relief supplies for the earthquake disaster rescue is analyzed. A model is proposed for identifing the information reliability of dynamic relief-demand under the conditions of human's confusion and uncertainty about the relief-demand information from multiple information sources during the crucial period in an earthquake disaster rescue. This proposed model is used to approximately determine the time-varying relief demand, aiming for easy dynamic allocation and distribution of the rescue supplies.(4) The distribution priority problem of different kinds of relief is studied considering the different urgency of the relief demand in all disaster areas. With risk management, the risk of relief resource allocation is analyzed. Based on RPN(Risk Priority Number) methodology, a model is put forward for dynamically identifying the relief demand urgency, which is used to determine the priority of relief distribution.(5) The reliability of emergency logistics transportation network under earthquake disaster is studied. Firstly the reliability of the transportation network under earthquake disaster is analyzed. Based on the traditional GO methodology and considering the characteristics of time-varying system, the reliability of the emergency logistics transportation network is quantitatively analysed with probability measure.Given the lack of the statistical data or the variability of earthquake disaster, based on the possibility reliability theory and GO methodology principle, and combining with the characteristics of time-varying system, the possibility GO methodology was put forward for the evaluation and prediction of the reliability of emergency logistics transportation network under earthquake disasters.Through comparing and analyzing the possibility GO methodology and the traditional probability GO methodology, their connections and respective suitability for application are illustrated.(6) The routing problem of emergency logistics transportation in the earthquake disasters is studied. The connotation of the shortest path for the emergency logistics transportation in earthquake disasters is analyzed. The calculation method of the route travel time is studied by using the traffic wave theory. A route choice model of the emergency logistics transportation is proposed considering the time-varying characteristics of the travel time and the reliability on the transportation networks in earthquake disasters, and combining with decision factors such as the weight of the decision-makers. The simulation example demonstrates the application and the effectiveness of the proposed model.This dissertation mainly focuses on four key issues:dynamic demand forecasting of relief supplies, the priority of resource allocation and logistics distribution, transportation networks reliability and route choice for emergency logistics in earthquake disaster rescue.The main innovations can be summed up as follows:(1) A forecasting model of the dynamic relief-demand is established, which is used to approximately determine the time-varying relief demand under the conditions of human's confusion and uncertainty about the relief-demand information from multiple information sources.(2) A new RPN methodology is put forward for the dynamic optimization of the relief resource allocation, which is used to further determine the priority of relief resource allocation and logistics distribution in earthquake disaster rescue.(3) The possibility GO methodology is put forward for analyzing the reliability of the transportation networks of emergency logistics in earthquake disaster rescue.(4) The route choice model of emergency logistics transportation is established based on the time-varying characteristics of the reliability and the travel time on the transportation networks in earthquake disaster rescue.This research enriches the theory and methodology of the emergency logistics, and will provide decision-making reference for making emergency logistics operation schemes in earthquake disaster rescue.