Research On Earning Risk Management Of Grid Enterprises Under The Policy Of Energy Saving And Emission Reduction

Electric power industry is one of the most important basic industries in the state energy field, which is the lifeblood of the national economy. It plays an important role in the field of economic construction, national security, social stability and the improvement of people's living quality. In recent years, the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction has been constantly penetrating in social production and living. With the strengthening of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts, many relevant policies are issued, the clean and renewable energy sources is developing rapidly, and the traditional industries of high energy consumption and pollution are eliminated constantly. The change of external environment will have great influence on the earnings of power grid enterprises. The new renewable energy generation asks the operation of the grid for higher technical requirements. In order to enhance the reliability and receptivity of the power grid, the corresponding measures of power grid enterprise will boost enterprises'operation cost, leading to an increase of revenue risk. At the same time, with the growing of new energy grid-connection, power grid enterprises will face the situation that the electricity price space narrows, which has a significant impact on the enterprises' earnings and profits. In addition, the traditional electricity charging methods between power supply companies and customers and the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy lead to the increase of arrear of high energy consumption industries. The generation of new arrear chain brings certain influence on the security of power grid enterprises'earnings.Power grid enterprises play an unshakable bonding role in the orderly electric power production and consumption system of our country. The deterioration of earnings risk may affect the whole power supply environment. Therefore, it has urgent and strong practical significance to study the earnings risk management of power grid enterprises under the background of the energy conservation and emission reduction policy. This paper undertakes a sound study mainly from the following aspects:(1) Recognizing the income risk factors of power grid enterprises under the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction. First, analyze the influence of traditional factors such as customers'credits of power grid enterprises, the management of peak and valley time price, power load forecasting accuracy and so on. Meanwhile, considering the energy-efficient scheduling, renewable energy grid-connection, and other important factors, this paper recognizes the earnings risk factors of power grid enterprises under the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction comprehensively.(2) Studying the early-warning management theory method of power grid enterprises earnings risk under the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction. Based on the analysis of the influence on power grid enterprises'power purchase cost and sale income affected by energy saving and emission reduction policy, this paper establishes the power purchase structure prediction model based on the Markov Theory of transfer matrix recognition and the electric power load forecasting model based on Combined Forecasting Theory. In addition, it establishes an overall evaluation model on customers'credit of power grid enterprises based on cloud model theory with combined weight. The study provides a theoretical basis for the early-warning risk management of enhancing earnings of power grid enterprises.(3) Studying the theory of risk control management of power grid enterprises. This paper studies the methods of the energy-efficient scheduling management and the peak and valley time price management, combined with the requirements that the energy conservation and emission reduction policy puts forward. At the same time, the earnings risk control strategies have been analyzed from the angle of practical application.(4) Establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for power grid enterprises' earnings risk management under the energy saving and emission reduction policy. Combined with comprehensive evaluation theory, the paper has established the comprehensive evaluation system of power grid enterprises'earnings risk management, conducted an empirical research based on the Delphi Theory and fuzzy-AHP Theory, and provided basis for evaluation on improving the earnings risk management level.(5) Building a scientific power grid enterprise earnings risk management and control system. Combined with the risks and challenges of earnings risk management power under the energy conservation and emission reduction policy, this paper has built a scientific power grid enterprise earnings risk management and control system, which is expected to analyze the construction of risk report system, information system, culture system, organization institution, supervision and evaluation, and sustainable improvement mechanism from an all-around perspective.