Research On Intelligent Engineering Reasoning Mechanism And Its Applicationon On Complexity Analysis Of Power Demand-Supply Balance

Power system is a typical and especial complex system.Besides the energy conversion and power technology,the complexity analysis also includes the balance relationship between power supply and demand:how the macropolicy impacts the balance of power supply and demand in electricity-economic system? how to optimize the distributed generation planning for the uncertain factors such as the randomicity and fuzziness of wind speed? Because of these multi-dimension dynamical and some uncertain characteristic,the classical theories and precise models have become unfit to these situations.So this dissertation focuses on the research of the theory and methodology of Intelligent Engineering Programming and Optimization about problem B₂,Based on the idea of Theory-Methodology-Model-Application,the main contents are shown as follows:1.About theories,this paper analyzes the Intelligent Engineering from the system point of view,attempts to do the research work from System Engineering to Intelligent Engineering,presents a intelligent reasoning model based on rules in programming theories,and researches the optimization theories and methods about problem B₂ based onα-optimized andβ-optimized solution.Describes the Intelligent Programming four-part frame system,presents the synthesize principle and method of mapping function f,presents and proves the aim result theorem, optimum result theorem and comparison theorem of problem B₂.2.About methodologies,this paper presents the state space and knowledge expression method in Intelligent Engineering Programming Theoryies,gives a fuzzy-rough reduction arithmetic,builds a knowledge modeling and rule mining method,and analyzes the completeness and compatibility of rules.Based on these knowledge rules,this paper designs an intelligent reasoning method based on Intelligent Engineering and Variable Universe,the simulation results showed its well effect.3.About modeling,this paper proposes a complex system modeling method in terms of horizontal and vertical orientation:designs a multi-level intelligent modeling method by multi-level essential information knowledge description,and designs a distributed intelligent modeling method aimed at the complex harmony question. An intelligent Rule-based Model is built and its input-output mathematics form is expatiated.Furthermore,a case studies showed this modeling method is good in complex system modeling.4.About applications,on one hand,this paper builds an intelligent system model REEDAM(Rule-based Electricity-Economic Dynamic Analysis Model) based on Intelligent Engineering Programming Theory,and the dynamic course of balance between power supply and demand is simulated by this model.On the other hand, this paper presents an intelligent planning method based on Intelligent Engineering Optimization Theory,aimed at the uncertainty in distributed generation planning, this paper researches the intelligent planning method from two hiberarchy onα-optimized solution of path andβ-optimized solution of state.Case study shows the validity of this method.