Researches On Reliability Of Hull Life Based On Zero-Failure Data

The reliability and the life of hull are closely related. The research on the reliability of hull is to reflect the real reliability level of hull, and to promote the reliability management in the process of the hulls' development, manufacturing and using. So, the research on the reliability of hull has important significance and practical application value.With the rapid development of science and technology, some new materials are widely used in hull, which makes the reliability of the hull become higher. Therefore, it does not only need very long test time to access to the zero-failure data of hull life, but also makes it difficult to do destructs for high cost. Because of the high reliability of hull and less samples, the fixed time censoring method is used in the reliability test of hull commonly to get zero-failure data of hull. As a result, it is practicable to research the reliability of hull using zero-failure data.According to zero-failure data of hull life, the reliability of hull is researched. Two methods are used to get the point estimation and interval estimation of the reliability of hull, and forecast lower confidence bound limit of hulls' reliable life. The concrete work can be listed as follows:First, with the zero-failure data of hull life, integrated E-Bayes estimation is used to research the reliability of hull. Integrated E-Bayes estimation is an effective way for the study of reliability, and the ideal model for data mining and uncertainties knowledge, whose largest advantage is making priori knowledge combined with information and samples, and dependence relationship combined with probability. The numerical experiments show that integrated E-Bayes estimation is fit for the reliability research of hull.Second, the relationship of the life and reliability of hull is researched for different structure hulls. For different structure hulls, whose lives are subject to Weibull distribution, with zero-failure data of hull life, the unilateral model for lower confidence bound of hull reliability is established based on given life. The model accumulates the information of all zero-failure life data, which enhances the reliability of the analysis of the accuracy greatly. The model is easier in calculations and engineering applications.Third, when the life of hull with different structures are subject to Weibull distribution, with the zero-failure data of hull life, the model is established for forecasting the lower confidence bound limit of hull's life. The model accumulates the information of all zero-failure life data, which enhances the reliability of the analysis of the accuracy greatly. The method of the model is easy to implement.