Population Carrying Capacity Of The Heihe River Basin Forecast Analysis

Heihe River Basin is the second inland river basin in Northwest China. There is an important commodity grain, vegetable and seed production base in the western region, and there is very important strategic position. In recent years, due to frequent human activities, ecology in the Heihe River Basin has degradation and water resources dropped. Because the study for the relationships whit the population and resource has long been ignored, and people pursuit to economic development, the productivity declined, resources environmental degradated, production costs increased, economy tend to difficulties. As the the number of population carried in the area were one of the key issues of sustainable development, this paper select the prediction of population carrying capacity in Heihe River Basin as the main contents of this article.First, paper reviews the development of theoretical studies in Poplulation Carrying Capacity. Sencend, paper modeled included the four parts system analysis, system dynamics modeling, prediction and evaluation, and establishment of early warning indicators. And the model was applied in the Heihe River Basin. In the fifth chapter, Heihe River Basin will as a complex giant system, anaysising in the huge system of economic, social, resources environment, ecological environment, the papet modeled the Heihe River Basin population carrying capacity of the composite model.Through Complex systems has been systematic analysis of the Heihe River Basin, the complex system is decomposed into land and water resources, economic resources, population, resources and ecological environment of five subsystems. After analyzing each subsystem and the causal relationship with the other subsystems, paper constructed of the model, drawed respectively flow chart. Then enter in the model and the initial value of the machine running, get the specific capacity of the Heihe River Basin population of simulation data. After inspection of the simulation results, the simulated value can objectively reflect the actual situation. Then the establishment of the warning index system of the Heihe River Basin of the population carrying capacity analysised the main affectment factors for the development in Heihe River Basin.The results of the simulation show the overall population of the Heihe River Basin. The reason of the poor capacity was largely due to poor development of the region developed the coordination and development requirements of a certain distance Population carrying capacity directly affects the socio-economic development of a regional coordination. Population carrying capacity directly affects the socio-economic development of a regional coordination. Finally, the paper prospect the further study of population carrying capacity.