Population Carrying Capacity Research On The Upper Reaches Of The Yangtze River

During 30 years of reform and opening up, China's socio-economic aspects has made tremendous development, but also exposed a lot of problems, especially the issues of serious damage to resources and the environment and the sustainable economic development. To this end, the CPC Central Committee makes a great strategic plan of implementing the new scientific development concept and building a socialist harmonious society. The upper reaches of the Yangtze River is the forward position of the great western development regions and the most important ecological barrier, so the region is related to the development of the Yangtze River Basin ,even the country's sustainable development. Therefore, it has great theoretical and practical significance that the in-depth study of the bearing capacity of the region's population, the accurately measure to the area of sustainable development capacity, and providing the scientific basis to planning appropriate development ideas.This paper has built a population carrying capacity model, that under the regional sustainable development strategies ,on the base of the analysis of the documents in the carrying capacity of domestic and foreign population, in particular the constraints to regional population carrying capacity and launched a qualitative research on the region's population carrying capacity and that of status. At the same time, based on that, the paper has make a quantitative simulation and predict the dynamic evolution of space-time of the regional population carrying capacity and that of the state, then presented a analysis of the results of the evaluation and forecasts about examples of regional, finally proposed the corresponding countermeasures. The main contents include:1. Summary analysis of the evolutionary process of population carrying capacity study. This paper has sort out relevant research literature at home and abroad, and present an objective analysis and evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the existing research.2. Construction of the population carrying capacity model under regional sustainable development strategies. This paper has built a new model of the population carrying capacity by drawing on existing research, research methods, on the basis of in-depth understanding of regional sustainable development strategies.3. Application of absolute population capacity model within the region .This model will be applied to the upper reaches of the Yangtze River region, and then the paper make a quantitative assessment of the absolute population carrying capacity in upper reaches of the Yangtze River.4. Application of inter-regional population relative carrying capacity model. The model will be applied to the provinces and autonomous regions in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the upper reaches and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China's foreign and a number of regions, between various regions so as to clear the differences in basic conditions and the different functions.5. The relevant policy recommendations to improving the carrying capacity of the population in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and promoting sustainable development in the region.The main conclusions of this study are:1. The population carrying capacity under the regional sustainable development strategies includes the restrictive resources capacity, restrictive environmental factors carrying capacity and the capacity of regional socio-economic structure, and decided by the three factors.2. As human cognitive level and the level of technology has constantly improved, regional socio-economic capacity has play a increasingly important role in the population carrying capacity, and become a important aspects in decision to regional population carrying capacity.3. There is an overloading phenomenon in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River region, and the trend is further aggravated. By 2020, this region will be overloaded 9197600, overloading of 4.27 percent. In addition to slight surplus of carrying capacity of the region population of Yunnan Province, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou are overloaded.4. The population carrying capacity show different characteristics between Yangtze River upstream and downstream areas .carrying capacity of natural resources in the upper reaches is relatively better than that of in the lower reaches, and the relative economic resources and capacity in the lower reaches is better than the upstream areas, the two basic conditions, the function exits the differences.5. Carrying capacity of China's population is relatively backward in the world; people have a very tense relation to land, and with particularly conspicuous contradictions.The main innovation of this study: 1. The article attempt to create a population carrying capacity model, including the absolute and relative population, the carrying capacity of regional sustainable development strategies. This model provide a frame of reference for evaluation of the ability of regional sustainable development, also it provides a theoretical draw, new research methods to future generations study.2. By use of the established population carrying capacity model, this paper has measured the population carrying capacity in upper reaches of the Yangtze River region, and showed that the overloading phenomenon exited in upper reaches of the Yangtze River regions, and a further deterioration; the relative population carrying capacity on Yangtze River upper and lower reaches have different characteristics; China's population carrying capacity is fall behind. These new findings have important reference value in clearly on the main function in upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The weakness of this research lies in the research region lacking a broader representation and the selection of indicators worthy of further study due to the constraints of time and sources of information.