Study On Water Intervention Action Evaluation With Water Security Perspective

Ensuring water security has already been a strategic aim for countries and regions. In the context of increasingly serious problem of water security, the whole world takes water intervention actions as a powerful mean to solve water security problems. Nevertheless, many water intervention actions which may relief water security crisis also produce some unpredictable negative effects simultaneously. For example, the migration may lead to persistent poverty and threaten local social order. These negative effects trapped the water intervention action into a paradox that some problem solutions also become new problem source. With this problematical phenomenon and reality, we introduce a new security perspective and analyze the property of security threats caused by water intervention action, and build a three-dimension theoretical evaluation framework for water intervention action. Further,27security risk evaluation modes for water intervention action are advanced. Based on it, a qualitative evaluation on security threaten is conducted for South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Finally, we propose some suggestions around capability construction for immigration afterward, long-term ecological compensation mechanism built and water security strategy adjustment.The main findings and research effort in this dissertation involve the following elements:First, while the water intervention action solves the water security problems, it also cause new security risk threatening social harmonious development. That's need to bring new perspective to fully understand and evaluate these threats.This dissertation analyzes different role of water intervention action in different historical period. Then through multiple case study of Sanmenxia project, Aswan high dam project, the Three Gorges project, the Poyang Lake dam project, the Kerch Strait dam project, we conclude a lot of negative impact threatening human security and national security. However, the main perspectives to understand and evaluate the water intervention action, such as engineering perspective, environmental perspective, and economic perspective face some theoretical limits, resulting in failure in water intervention actions even they are feasible in Engineering and economic. Therefore, we need a new perspective which can make up the above perspective deficiency and get a more comprehensive and integrated understanding of water intervention action. The new perspertive is security perspective.Second, the obvious scale effect and multi-dimension feature of social security risk caused by water intervention action is revealed.This dissertation conducts a detailed analysis on Sanmenxia project and reveals that under different time scale such as the early operation period, rebuilt period and stable operation period has different security threats. And through analysis on the negative effect of Aswan high dam project and the Kerch Strait dam project, we can find the security threat involved in multiple security fields such as environmental security field, economic security, social security, politics security, military security and the security fields exist interactions. We also analyze the Three Gorges and Poyang Lake dam project, which show multi-scale spatial effect in reservoir area, river basin, the resettlement location and even the state.Third, from a three-dimensional security evaluation theoretical framework which contains the time dimension, spatial dimension and security field dimension, with the object of water intervention action, we build temporal-spatial-security field evaluation framework based on the dimension feature of time, space and security. Then, we rank temporal dimension by small scale, middle scale and large scale, rank spatial dimension by local, basin or regional and national and divide security field into engineering-economic, social-environmental and political-military. Combined each scale of the evaluation dimensions can form3x3x3possible security evaluation modules. These evaluation modules are capable of accommodating conventional evaluation perspective of water intervention action, and can fully describe, analyze and predict the risk and security theat round the water intervention action.Fourth, for the groundwater intervention action, surface water intervention action, and atmospheric water intervention action, We apply the three-dimensional security evaluation theoretical framework to analyze security threat source. And we also evaluate the possible security threat caused by the three water intervention types respectively. Especially, we do some forward-looking analysis and security evaluation for the atmospheric water intervention which is still in the exploration stage currently.Fifth, finally we apply new multidimensional water security risk evaluation model and approach to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in the process of construction, and suggests water security status and future risk for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and put forward the mitigation hedging policy recommendations.