Research On Organizational And Consesus Reaching Method Of Experts Discussion In War Design Engineering

War Design Engineering (WDE) is an engineering-method for analyzing anddesigning the future war complex system. The basic idea of WDE is to design thestrategies for future information war by integrating the wisdom of domain experts andutilizing combination quantitative and qualitative method, in order to propose thedevelopment advce of equipment and tactics for the war that be likely to happen in thefuture. Expert group discussion is the importance part of WDE, and is the importantorganizational form of expert wisdom synthesis. It is used to take up the expert groupdiscussiontosolvethewardesignproblemandtoinspireexpertscreativitytodesignthestrategies. The expert group discussion fills up the whole flow of WDE. Each stage oftheprocessofWDE,fromthestageofspecificationofwardesignquestionsandobjectstothedesignofstrategies ofequipment and tactics,needs the collaborational discussionof domain experts. So, the expert group discussion is an important research content ofthetheoriesandmethodsofWDE.The scholars have done many researches about the expert group discussion. Butsome aspects of it need deep research, such as how to design the discussion process,how the expert group to reach consensus in the disucussion and etc. On the basis ofrelative research fruits, and aiming at the demand of expert discussion in WDE, andwiththeengineeringcharacteristicofwardesign, theorginazationmethodofdiscussion,the consensus reaching method and the structureing and analyisis of discussioninformation were researched in this paper. To research the above issues ont only enrichthe fundamental theory of WDE, but also enable the organizer or facilitator to organizeand manipulate discussion more easily. And it benefits the improvement of discussionquality and efficiency. The research has the theory signification and realistic value forpomotingthedevelopmentoftheoryandmethodofWDE.Themaincontributionandinnovationofthispaperareasfollows:Firstly, the concept and basic elements of expert group discussion in WDE wereanalyzed.OnthebasisofintroductionofthebasictheoryofWDE,theconceptofexpertgroupdiscussioninWDEwas addressed, andthe frameworkof expert groupdiscussionin WDE was given. After that, the fundamental elements of expert group discussion inWDE were addressed, including the subject of discussion, the object of discussion andtheorginizatoinofdiscussion,etc.ThefacilitationtasksofsystemengineerintheexpertgroupdiscussioninWDEwereanalyzed.Secondly, the formal discussion process design method for WDE based onThinkLet was proposed, and the ThinkLets for the expert group discussion in WDEwere given. The proposed method utilizes the concept of ThinkLet to formally discribethe goup discussion interaction form, discussion behavior criterion and the facilitation task of facilitator as the basic construction block of formal discussion process. Theformal discussion process design method based on ThinkLet is a block-based designmethod from up to bottom which at first to design the sequence of discussion actionaccording to discussion object, and then to determine the group collaboration mode foreach discussion action and select proper ThinkLet according to the collaboration mode.The sequence of ThinkLets make up of the formal discussion process. The basis of thismethod is to design the proper ThinkLets for expert group discussion in WDE. For thispurpose, the think mode emerging in the group discussion and the effect interactivemodel of multi-realm expert were analyzed. On this basis, and with the specialrequirement of expert group discussion in WDE, the ThinkLets for expert gourpdiscussion in WDE were given. By using the proposed method and ThinkLets, theformal process of the discussion of war design question and the discussion of strategiesofequipmentandtacticsweredesigned.Thirdly, the discussion information structuring model based on semantics relationand its analysis technique were researched. The basic theory issues of discussioninformation structuring mode based on semantics relation were addressed, includingbasic idea, main function and application scope. The discussion information structuringmodel based on semantics relation structures the discussion utterances based on thesematic relation between the utterances. On the basis of analyzingthe relative theoryofdialog utterance classification and the characteristic of speak action in the discussion ofWDE, the utterance types and semantics relations between them were defined in thispaper. And upon this work, the basic structure and mathematical representation ofdiscussion information structuring model were given. The discussion informationstructuring model proposed in this paper is a discussion network consisting of questionnode, statement node and argument node. On this basis, the analysis and evaluationtechniqueofdiscussioninformationbasedonsemanticsrelationisresearched,includingthe evaluation of focus degree, the evaluation of discussion enough degree, the analysisofopnionclassificationandtheevaluationofconsensusdegree.Fourthly, the consensus reaching method based on argumentation was proposed,according to the characteristic of group consensus reaching in WDE. The consensusreaching method based on argumentation is a process-oriented method, which consistsof four steps, that is: 1) recongnization of opnion difference; 2) guid expert group toargue the opnion difference; 3) determine whether the view, claim or opnion acceptedby the expert groups; 4) judge whether the expert group reaching consensus. Aiming atthe step two and three, the formalization model group argumentation was researched,and a extened bipolar argumentation framework was proposed. The determinationmethod of accepted argument set was given. On this basis, the basic rule to determinetheopnionwhetheracceptedbygroupwasgiven.Fifthly, a case was studied. The case of obtaining the air control right is analyzed todemonstrate heapp lication of the organization and theconsensusrea chingme thodinWDE and discussion in for mationstructuring model for WDE porposed in thepaper.