Modeling And System R&D For China's Regional Carbon Quota Control Policy

The latest research shows that, in the past50years, the observed warming fact was mainly caused by human activities, and CO2produced in the process of the burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of climate warming. Thus, reducing CO2emissions has become the joint liability of global energy saving, carbon reduction and environmental protection. In order to curb the rapid rising trend of the CO2concentration in the atmosphere, the international community has adopted a series of positive measures, trying to reduce fossil fuel emissions. China is in a stage of high-speed economic development, and coal, whose combustion emits massive carbon dioxide, still accounts for more than half of the energy structure in China. Therefore, estimation of China's future demand for carbon emissions and research into the feasibility of carbon quotas implementation in our country is of great significance. Carbon emissions space will become the constraints of China's economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to estimate China's future demand for carbon emissions and to investigate the country's implementation feasibility of carbon quotas. For this reason and on the basis of GIS, this article established the model of regional carbon emissions control policy and the development of simulation system.Theoretically, it tries to enrich the Integrated regional assessment model(IRAM), and meanwhile in application, it attempts to solve some practical problems of China. As the world have not implemented carbon emission quotas and China also have not defined the total emission reductions, the significance of theoretical exploration and technology exploring of this research is all the more important.Based on the above background and the summary of the previous theoretical foundation and related researches, this article estimates the carbon emission requirements of30provinces (except Tibet) under the conditions of balanced growthin China from2009to2050. And it systematically and comprehensively explores the carbon emissions demand of provinces of China in the future, and provides an important research foundation of carbon emissions target setting and carbon quota allocation for China's provinces, cities and autonomous regions. Balanced growth here is to make sure that carbon emissions would not stimulate economic crisis. On the basis of this, it further explores the carbon emission quota assignment plan on the level of Chinese province. And on this basis, this paper discusses the Chinese provincial scale of carbon emissions quota allocation scheme, and assigns the China's initial carbon emissions rights and does a comparative analysis under the five principles of carbon emissions. Then under the restriction on the quotas of the five principles, it calculates the carbon emissions control rate, the economic growth path, energy consumption path and energy carbon emissions path under the carbon emissions control rate on the basis of the maximization of social welfare. This paper tries to find out the principles of carbon emission reduction which can reduce the regional disparity and be in line with China's regional economic development. These modeling results and data results would eventually be built in a GIS-based policy simulation system. Obviously China's carbon emission quotas may change in the future, and at the same time carbon emissions allocation principles can adjust. However, because of the generality of the system, the development mode and the research and development system of this article can meet the needs of China's Regional Carbon Quota Control Policy.This research is divided into six chapters; Chapter2and Chapter4are the main parts of the paper. Chapter5focuses on system development.Chapter1mainly elaborates the background and the significance of the research, summing up the related theories and the research progress.Chapter2estimates the demand for carbon emissions of provinces under balanced growth conditions in the future according to the economic dynamics theory, and the specific findings are as follows: (1)The economy output and emission requirements on the non-binding emitting scenario of China in the future are estimated. Under the steady economy growth, the economic output and carbon emission requirements of all the Chinese provinces are increasing. The economic increment of the eastern region is larger than that of the western region, and the disparities are enlarging gradually, whereas the carbon emission requirement increment of the eastern region is smaller than that of the western region, and the gap between them is narrowing.(2) The rate of energy intensity in the municipalities and most provinces in the east and Mid-China is higher than that of the western regions, and the energy intensity is below the western areas. Therefore the western regions will face huge pressure of carbon reduction. Before2020, the western regions cannot achieve the average reduction target of emission reduction by40to45%; therefore, the eastern regions need to take on more responsibility in the future.(3) Energy conservation and emission reduction is in a benign development stage in most areas of China. Under the premise of low carbon technology development in China, the emissions situation is optimistic. And the underdeveloped western provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Guizhou face much pressure of emission reduction, and the way of emissions reduction in these province are focused on adjusting the industrial structure, the energy structure and mode of production.(5) The per capita carbon emissions of Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin are more larger, and the reason is the high urbanization level of three cities. This trend reflected that along with the improvement of urbanization level in our country, the per capita carbon emissions will generally rise and hinder the carbon emissions reductionChapter3explores the carbon emission quota assignment plan on the level of Chinese province, trying to find out the carbon emission reduction principles in line with the Chinese region economy development. As a foundation of optimal control theory, according to the carbon emissions dynamic model, the second chapter estimates the requirements of China's provincial economy outputs, population and carbon emission on the non-binding emitting scenario of China in the future. Based on this, this article allocates the initial carbon emissions in the principles of GDP, the population, the GDP population, the payment ability and carbon emission requirement respectively, and makes a comparative analysis of the carbon emission quotas and the carbon emission gaps estimated in the5principles respectively by considering the historical responsibility (historical cumulative carbon emissions). The result shows that (1) Allocation according to future carbon emission requirement is more reasonable.(2) More specifically, in the GDP principle, the eastern region gains larger carbon emission quotas with the minimum carbon emission gap. In the population principle, the middle region gains the largest carbon emission quotas. In the payment ability principle, the western region carbon emission surplus is the most. In the forward-looking principle and the product of GDP and population principle, the disparities among them are relatively small.In Chapter4the control model of carbon reduction rate is built. Based on the conclusions of Chapter3, this article obtains the carbon reduction rate under the quota restraint with the goal of maximizing social welfare of the province. By the model estimation, this article obtains the trends of carbon emission of all provinces. The result shows that (1) Different provinces have different emission control rate under different principles of carbon quota. The regional disparity is minimized in the forward-looking principle according to future carbon requirements. Most provinces of the eastern region gains smallest carbon emission control rates under the restriction of quotas of GDP principle. In the payment ability principle, the carbon emission control rates of most provinces in the western region are smallest. In the population principle, the middle region gains the smallest carbon emission control rates.(2)The economic growth is declining under the carbon emission control rate. The economic growth rate of decline is different under different distribute principles, and the economic growth rate of certain provinces appear negative growth during the later stage. The carbon emissions path and energy consumption path appear a trend of first-rise-and-then-drop in most provinces under5principles and only a few provinces appear downward trend. The gap between the emission control rates will affect the gap between energy consumption paths and carbon emission paths in the internal region. And the factors of energy structure, industrial structure and energy intensity will affect the carbon emissions path and the corresponding energy consumption path.(3) China faces pressure to reduce the quotas of emissions.As a research paper of the Calculation geography, this paper developed a spatial decision support system called "China's Regional Carbon Quota Control Policy" Based on GIS, this system constructs a database with provinces, cities and autonomous regions as its data units, which includes the emission control rate model under the balance economic growth requirements, carbon emissions requirements estimate model, quota allocation principles and the non-binding emitting model. In this paper, the economic growth of the quota allocation policy simulation model can be computerized. System development uses the object-oriented software development course, and the demand analysis of the system pay attention to practicality, expansion, easy maintenance, and high visualization degree. This is a type of GIS decision support system.