Seismic Damage Prediction And Emergency Assessment Of Earth-rock Dam

In China there are more than86,000dams today, the earth-rock damaccounted for more than95%of the total. On the one hand earth-rock dammay damaged during earthquake disaster and cause direct economic losses.The other hand the earth-rock dam may evolve into secondary disasterssources and causing huge economic losses and casualties caused by secondaryflood. Life will be difficult because of the dam cannot work as normal afterthe disaster. Through a simple, quack seismic damage prediction and rapidassessment for seismic damage in earth-rock dam, the government can carryeffective earthquake emergency work, reasonable distribution the reliefpersonnel and supplies for avoid secondary disasters. By researching theseismic damage prediction and emergency assessment method on earth-rockdams, we can deepen the understanding on the mechanism of the seismicresponse of dam.According to this research people can avoid or mitigatepotential damage and loss by taking pre-seismic measures. The research onthe monomer earth-rock dam seismic damage prediction and rapid assessmentis very little at home and aboard. The research on groups earth-rock damseismic damage prediction and emergency assessment is basically a blank inChina, yet to be developed earth-rock dam seismic damage prediction andemergency assessment. Based on seismological field survey of earth-rockdams,there are1792seats of dam's seismic damage data in Wenchanearthquake,452seats of dam's seismic damage data in the Tangshanearthquake, the Haicheng earthquake and Tonghai earthquake are analyzedfor getting a simple, quack seismic damage prediction and emergencyassessment result.Main research works invlud as following:1,Based on seismological field survey of earth-rock dams, proportion ofseismic damage, seismic damage types, seismic vulnerable dam types werestatistical induction. On the basis of the seismological field survey, thisarticle make a statistical analyze on earthquake damage influencing factorson the earthquake and determine the main seismic disaster influencingfactors.2,Combination of the historical experience of earth-rock dam seismicdamage state classification in China, this article give a new classification ofearth-rock dam seismic damage state classification witch consider theseismic damage condition, water conservancy function condition and damrepair. In this new vulnerability classification the seismic damaged dam seismic damage level is divided into five levels.3,After the seismological field survey, summarized the seismic damagedlaw of earth dam. The correlation of influencing factors and dam seismicdamage level is analyzed. China's earth-rock dam seismic damage probabilitymatrices is established according to the actual huge earthquake damage dataof main land China since the founding of the People 's Republic of China.The form of the distribution of the earth dam seismic vulnerability curves areset up.4,On the basis of national standards, this research use the concept of lostrate as a index to quantitative descript the earth-rock dam seismic damagelevel. The lost rate as the classification boundaries of each seismic damagethreshold overcomes the inconvenience of the qualitative description of theearth-rock dam vulnerability classification. Combined with the earth-rockdam seismic damage probability matrices data, the vulnerability of thevarious seismic intensity on the earth-rock dam were researched. Base ondate of seismic vulnerability matrix, vulnerability curves that fitted bynormal distribution can be used to predict Chinese earth-rock dam' seismicdamage are established. On the basis of the concept of loss rate and seismicdamage vulnerability distribution of earth-rock dam, a groups earth-rockdam seismic damage prediction model is established. According to analysisof seismic damage influencing factors, the other correction parameter valuesof earth-rock dam were determined. By the groups earth-rock dam seismicdisaster forecast model, the earth-rock dam's seismic damage state and theirdamaged number in VI-X intensity region can be prediction. The shockdamage extent and proportion of groups earth-rock dam' in some earthquakeregion also can be assessment.5,As the seismic damage inflecting factors and seismic vulnerabilitydamage classification of earth-rock dam is fuzzy, a multi-fuzzy predictionmodel is established for monomer dam's seismic damage. On the one handthis multi-fuzzy prediction model reflects the essence of Continuous changein real terms such as intensity, dam base conditions, seismic damagevulnerability condition and so on. So this prediction model can drawaccurate conclusions because it input real information for assessment. On theother hand, multi-fuzzy prediction model reflects the correlation ofinfluencing factors and dam seismic damage. The monomer dam's predictionmodel express relationship between seismic influencing factors and dam seismic damage by in the form of membership function and avoid the troublethat the regression coefficients not so well in the statistics method due todam's seismic damage conditions so intricately. The multi-fuzzy predictionmodel considering the mutual coupling effects between main individualseismic damage influencing factors, clear thinking to avoid the "black box"that can not reflect the seismic damage mechanism by the neural networkmethods. Base on the203historical data of seismic damage earth-rock dams,fuzzy mathematics membership function are partial adjustment for predictingmonomer earth-rock dam's seismic damage state.6,By the research of relation between damage rate and lost rare and thedistribution law that the earth-rock dam's seismic damage state and quantityin different intensity regions, a distribution formula is established bystatistics method. According to this distribution formula theearthquake-caused direct economic loss of earth-rock dams can be estimatein a short period of time and give a overall perspective seismic lossassessment for earth-rock dam. The research can provide reference forearthquake emergency and post-disaster reconstruction planning.