Research On Price Formation And Stability Measures Of Vegetable Whole Industry Chain

There are increasing factors that could determine the vegetable price under the growing marketization. Various kinds of factors such as natural disasters, monetary liquidity, diesel prices have different impacts on vegetable prices through various channels. As a result of “Small-Scale Production, Big Market” vegetable production and circulation pattern under the vegetable producing cycle, the vegetable prices in China are severely volatile and have a serious impact on social harmony and stability of residents’ daily life. Under the condition of market economy, how to give full play to market forces, form vegetable prices scientificly and control prices effectively have become a major problem for experts, scholars and government officials in the new period,the dissertation conducts a comprehensive research on the price formation and stability mechanism in the whole vegetable industry chain by three parts and from three aspects: the whole industry chain, price formation and price stability.PartⅠstudies the transaction process of the vegetable industry chain. Among which, chapter 3 analyses the transaction process of vegetable industry chain from between wholesales market and in wholesale market two aspects. According to the types of wholesale market, this part analysies the transaction process of producer wholesale market, transit wholesale market and final wholesale market respectively. And then it analyses various kinds of circulation channel of the whole vegetable industry chain and the transaction process between wholesales market. Finally, it proposes the transaction process optimization model of the whole vegetable industry chain.Part Ⅱ is the core reseach in the dessertation, it focuses on the study of the mechanism of the formation of the vegetable prices.Chapter 4 analyses the relationship between farmers’ vegetable amount and vegetable prodctuction price. Based on the quarterly data from Q1 of 2002 to Q4 of 2010, the farmers’ vegetable sales amount of per capita appears in obvious seasonal fluctuation; vegetable production price maintains a comparative stable trend except a little increase in Q4. According to the cross-correlation map and Granger test, the influence of vegetable sales amount per capita on vegetable production price is not significant. Under ADL model, current vegetable sales amount does not have significant effect on current vegetable production prices, and the formation of vegetable production price has strong “one-way decision” and “asymmetry”.Chapter 5 analyses the linkage between vegetable wholesale and retail price. Firstly, based on the monthly data of vegetable wholesale and retail price from January 2005 to December 2011, the influence of seasonal factors on the wholesale and retail price is independent under transactional ananlysis. Secondly, cluster analysis is used to judge the extent of the correlation between the factors affecting the price of vegetables; the result shows that there is a high correlation between transportation distance and the proportion between supermarket and farmers’ market. And then further research by principal component analysis demonstrates that the agri-product amount, fuel price index and the proportion between supermarket and farmers’ market are the three main factors which affect the wholesale price. Finally, discuss the correlation between the wholesale and retail prices, which illustrates wholesale price affect retail price obviously. In the empirical analysid part, it starts from VAR model, which is developed to analyse the mutual transmission relationship between wholesale and retail prices.Granger test is used here which shows wholesale price is the cause of the changes on retail price. And the impulse response function further tells that wholesale market information exert a significant and long term effect on the retail price. In a word, wholesale market rank at the leading place during the process of the price formation in wholesale and retail market. As the issue meets the characters of grey system, this part also follow grey system requirements and build a relatively direct formula between wholesale and retail prices, it also verify high correlation and mutual transmission relationship exist between wholesale and retail prices. This matches the result of VAR model completely, and verifies the research hypothesis simultaneously. Finally, build ADL distributed lag model, which shows wholesale and retail prices are both affected their own lagged period. And the relationship between them appears “symmetry” to some extent. Retrospecting the whole empirical analysis, the wholesale price has significant correlation with retail price, both of which are highly affected by their lagged period. The standard deviation of retail market is smaller than that of wholesale market; therefore, retail market has a more stable operation of market mechanism than wholesale market.Chapter 6 analyses the price formation mechnism of the whole vegetable industry chain. According to the principal component analysis, vegetable retail price are more affected by the producing cost and vegetable yield. Based on the monthly data from January 2005 to December 2011, and under VAR model and pulse response chart, the prices of vegetable production and wholesale will greatly promote the retail prices, while the retail prices can not greatly push the prices of production and wholesale, which fully shows that the price transmission in the whole vegetable industry chain has exceeded the traditional linear transmission model and displayed an obvious unbalanced character. At the same time, vegetable wholesale price has significant impact on pushing product prices.Finally, chapter 7 analyzes the pricing model from trading and settlement perspective. According to transaction mode, the dissertation first analyses the current transaction situation of wholesale market, which include analysis on transaction related parties, management parties and income structure. Among which, game theory is adduced to discuss related parties’ gambling process. And a dynamic four-party game model is established to analyse the price change of the wholesale market and explore Nash Bargaining Equilibrium among vegetable producers, wholesale market management, transactors and customers. Then, the research move to analyse the four main trading mode of wholesale market where there are counterparty transaction, auctions, online trade and e-trade. At present, "counterparty transaction” has been the major trading method in the wholesale market in our country. As the result, cash has been the major settlement. However, electronic settlement should be developed to improve the accuracy and scientific of pricing. Therefore, this chapter analyzes the way of electronic settlement in wholesale market, including the selection of electronic settlement model, operating mechanism,implementation difficulties and supporting measures. There are only two options on settlement, “shopping through electronic settlement model” and “quasi banking electronic scale settlement model”. The operation mechanism can be summarized as card application upon entry, transactions by card, transaction history inquiry, and exit wholesale market by invoice”.Part III proposes contrapuntally according vegetable stability measurements in the new period. The policy will focus on six aspects as followed:1. Formation and communication of innovative price information2. Establishment of stable distribution channel3. Optimisation of government vegetable reserve and release...