Research On Expansion-evolutions And Reliability Of National Economic Mobilization Chain

National economy mobilization chain which has the function of economy mobilization refers to a network structure formed by multi-participator make particular resource security objectives as core strategy in the national economy mobilization activities through integrated dynamic alliance. The analysis on the expansion and evolution behaviors of the national economy mobilization chain as well as further researching on the reliability problems during the process of the expansion and evolution are important in the aspects of theory and practice. As to theoretical aspect, it can not only enhance the knowledge of the inherent law in the process of mobilization chain’s establishment and development, but also broaden the research scope from homogeneous resource supply subjects to resources’ industry chain correlated subjects in order to enrich and develop the theory of mobilization alliance. As to practical aspect, it is helpful to explore the approaches and methods in order to achieve cross-sectoral, cross-industry business fast docking of national economy mobilization. Furthermore, it is efficient to discover the weak points in the process of national economy mobilization chain’s expansion and evolution and enhance the mobilization chain’s ability against operational risks as well as providing scientific advices for the related departments in the preparative construction period.The following innovative researches have been carried out in this paper and corresponding conclusions and results have been achieved.First, national economy mobilization chain is an essential component of the national economy mobilization theory. The definition, characteristics and category of national economy mobilization chain have been presented systematically. Moreover, three directions of mobilization activities within expansion-type mobilization system have been presented, namely self-expansion, horizontal-expansion and vertical-expansion of mobilization chain. Additionally, two new concepts of pull-type mobilization and push-type mobilization of mobilization chain have been proposed and two functions of releasing the mobilization potential which are implied not only among associated members but also among vertical adjacent levels in the mobilization chain system have been revealed deeply under the action of national economy mobilization giving external pressure. The complexity of mobilization activities’ external environment has been analyzed in the perspective of system theory and the deviation between supply and demand of the end-products in the mobilization tasks has been regarded as the vertical downstream boundary of the external environment. In addition, the new concept, level contributive elasticity of the mobilization chain, has been proposed and has been the principle to divide the vertical upstream boundary in the mobilization system.Second, the systematic research has been completed in the process of mobilization chain’s expansion and evolution based on a starting point, level contributive elasticity of the mobilization chain. The system dynamics model of mobilization chain’s vertical expansion and evolution has been established with the purpose of fully satisfying the deviation of end-products’ supply and demand within the specified time. Furthermore, the impact factors leading to mobilization chain’s expansion have been analyzed, selected and quantified in the view of mobilization enterprises, internal levels and adjacent levels. From the perspective of qualitative analysis, the relationship between the factors of mobilization chain’s expansion and evolution has been demonstrated and its casual loop diagram model and diagram model have been constructed. By the use of Anylogic simulation platform, take the mobile houses’ mobilization production in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake disaster relief work as an example, the system dynamics model of their mobilization chain’s expansion and evolution has been built which analyzes the impact factors as well as their correlation bringing mobilization chain’s vertical expansion comprehensively and systematically in order to verify the pertinence, rationality and applicability of national economy mobilization chain’s level contributive elastic index.The optimization method of improving the reliability of the system should be sought by the structural reliability of the mobilization chain based on the comprehensive analysis of internal and external uncertainties in the mobilization chain system and faced with the complicated organizational structure and operating rules within the mobilization chain’s system and external environment of the varied mobilization activities. Based on this, the mobilization chain’s reliability index has been built on the basis of structural reliability and series-parallel reliability analysis model has been established on the basis of units, levels and overall aspects. Moreover, regarding mobilization enterprises’ initial inventory as the research object, the mathematical analysis of the effects, three different operation schemes exert to system reliability, leads to three inferences about the mobilization chain’s initial inventory schemes. The numerical example, the mobile houses’ mobilization chain’s reliability, verifies the rationality of these inferences which would provide practical and scientific advices with more pertinence for the mobilization enterprises’ preparative construction.Finally, considering enterprises’ self-expansion failure risk as research object, on the basis of analyzing the potential failure risks of mobilization chain’s self-expansion behaviors, main types of self-expansion failure factors have been summarized and the mobilization chain’s fault tree models based on independent self-expansion failure factors of mobilization enterprises and correlative self-expansion failure factors of collaborative enterprises. Then by the use of Monte Carlo simulation algorithm, regarding the key importance of all kinds of expansion failure basic events as output, the diagnostic research of the key self-expansion failure factors leading to mobilization chain failure has been accomplished. The simulation result shows that it has high rationality and efficiency to regard key importance of all types of self-expansion failure basic events as the key factors to diagnose the mobilization chain’s failure. Significantly, it is worth to study the effects that correlative self-expansion failure factors of collaborative enterprises exert on the reliability of whole system.