Study On Complex Dynamics Of Game Models Based On Risk-averse Supply Chain

Globalization of supply chain, diversity of customer demand and complexity of market environment make the competition in internal and external of supply chain more and more fierce, the market uncertainty factors are also steadily increasing. However, the traditional supply chain model is mostly studied under the assumption of risk neutral, in reality, facing the uncertainty of the market, the supply chain is usually characterized by risk-averse behavior. Therefore, research on risk-aversion supply chain has more practical meaning. In this dissertation, based on the researches at home and abroad, the risk-aversion supply chain game models are constructed and studied using the nonlinear dynamics theory and dynamic economics methods. The main content of this dissertation is as follows:1. Based on the bounded rationality hypothesis, the dynamic output competition game models of the risk-aversion supply chain under the discrete decision-making and team decision-making are built. The existence of Nash equilibrium is proved and the influence of parameters on the system stability is investigated. The complex dynamical behaviors of the output game models are further studied using bifurcation theory, the largest Lyapunov exponent, strange attractor, butterfly effect, etc. We measure the system performance by profits index and analyze the influence of different states on the manufacturers’ profit in the model.2. The tertiary Bertrand-Stackelberg game model of risk-aversion supply chain is researched using the nonlinear theory. The studies find that the leader’s risk-aversion behavior and uncertainty of customer demand affect the stability of the system, but retailer’s risk aversion behavior has no effect on the stability of the system. The system performance is measured by profits index, the influences of chaos phenomena on the performance of market operation is analyzed. Parameter adjustment control has a very good control on system’s chaotic behavior.3. A pricing Hotelling model of risk-averse supply chain is built, which consists of two manufacturers and a common retailer, two manufacturers agreed to create probabilistic products. Retailers sell traditional and probabilistic products to customers at the same time, which makes his pricing decisions become complex. In this part, the influence of parameters on system stability is the focus of research, control chaotic behavior of the system using nonlinear feedback control method. The study find that if the customer’s risk attitude tend to be neutral, the stability of the system is lower; the lower wholesale price discount is, the greater the stability of the system is.4. The dynamic evolution process of dual-channel supply chain model is analyzed using nonlinear dynamics method; the model consists of two manufacturers and two retailers. The delayed feedback control is used to control chaotic behavior of dual-channel supply chain model. The study find that different game decision types have a great influence on the profit of both sides, manufacturers and retailers should make decisions according to their own market positions.