Study Of Land Use Optimization In Yellow River Delta Based On Extension Data Mining

In November 2009, “The Development Plan of The Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone” was approved by the State Council。 The Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone is strategically positioned as an important National Efficient Ecological Economic Demonstration Zone, Special Industrial Base, Reserved Land Resources Development Zone and important Economic Development Zone in Bohai Rim, making it an important part of National Strategy of Regional Coordinated Development。The land resources of Yellow River delta are prominent, with advantageous geographical location, rich natural resources, unique ecosystem and good industrial development foundation. As one of China’s most potential development delta,it is of great practical significance for the study of the changes in land resource utilization.Meanwhile, there still exist the structural contradictions and deep-seated problems of regional economic development in the delta。 For a long time, economic development is at the cost of polluting environment and wasting resources。 The environment has been polluted and the ecosystem has been damaged。 Although the land resources are affluent in the Yellow River Delta, the land has low quality and is seriously salinized。 The overdevelopment caused by the increasing population results in the land deterioration which poses a threat to the future agricultural economic development。 So there are many things to do to realize the balanced sustainable development between economy, population, land resources and environment。 To ensure the sustainable economic and societal development, what all the decision-makers have to face is how to protect environment while keeping economy developing rapidly and realize the sustainable use of land resources。In this thesis, evaluating indicator is chosen from the aspect of land resources, ecological environment and social-economic development from the perspective of sustainable use of land。 Taking Binzhou city in the Yellow River Delta as subject, statistical methods, the theory and method of extension data mining, the method of the extension strategy to solve the contradictory problem of sustainable use of land, and the system dynamics method are adopted。 Firstly, land-use pattern and structural change and their influence on social economy and ecological environment are analyzed on the level of dynamic change。 Secondly, extension strategies are produced that can solve the contradictory problems in the process of the sustainable use of land by extension mining method。 Finally, using the method of system dynamics, the simulated predictive analysis of the sustainable use of land is done。 This research provides reference for future optimization of resources allocation and scientific land utilization management in the delta。By statistical method, the thesis analyzes land-use structure and its change in different counties of Binzhou in recent years, through comparative study of space domain and time domain。 The features and problems of land-use in this area are pointed out。 That is, land resources in this area are affluent, but land development intensity is relatively low; land-use type tends to be single and land is overused without proper attention to the maintenance of its fertility。 After studying the difference on land development structure and change in different counties in Binzhou, rationalization proposals about future regional coordinated development are put forward。Based on the static cluster analysis of current condition of land-use and agricultural development in Binzhou, land-use we extension analysis model is built by combining the extension theories with data mining。 In the analysis model, index evaluations concerning land resource, ecological environment and agricultural economy in several areas are selected from Binzhou social statistical data。 The influences of land-use type and structure on social economy and ecological environment in recent twenty years in Binzhou are described quantificationally。 By combining current condition of land-use and agricultural development in Binzhou and dynamic change in recent twenty years, the analysis model provides a scientific direction for land use and coordinated development of economic society and ecological environment in the future。The thesis is mainly based on the framework of extension generating theory, with the direction of regional land sustainable usage。 The extension method is adopted whose research subject is contradictory problems and research content is intelligentized treatment。 The analysis is done formally through computer thought process imitating human’s finding-and-solving-problems process。 Extension strategies are produced quantificationally, which solve the problems of the contradictory between the need of economic rapid development and protection of land resources and the entire ecological environment。 Moreover, evaluation index weight coefficients are calculated on the basis of improving entropy method and the produced strategies are evaluated。Based on the analysis of the whole structure of regional sustainable development system in the Yellow River Delta, combining with the relationship of each factor, the thesis constructs regional sustainable development system of the Yellow River Delta, which includes resources subsystem, population subsystem, economy subsystem and land-use structure & conversion subsystem, according to the requirements of model-building in system dynamics。 Through analyzing factors influencing regional sustainable development and combing simulation software Vensim and system dynamics model, based on the fully collection and investigation of related materials of Binzhou, 12 state variable,14 rate variable and 37 auxiliary variable and constant are selected。 A complete system dynamic modulating flow chart of land information is formed based on regional sustainable development system in the Yellow River Delta。 Taking Binzhou as an example, the thesis study its regional sustainable development and construct a kinetic equation of regional system according to the data, such as the population, the birth rate, the death rate, the number of work force and its immigration and emigration rate, regulations of land type change, GDP variance, urban and rural Engel coefficients in the city and counties。 The dynamic change of land-use in the area is simulated by using the principle of system dynamics。 The regional sustainable development system has been calculated。 The influence of the land-use change on the sustainable development in the Yellow River Delta is quantified。 The land-use trend in this area is also predicted。 The research provides decision-making basis and policy suggestions for land development, ecological economic zone construction and sustainable development, and the basis for formulating sustainable development strategies in the Yellow River delta。...