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Research On Relations Of Chinese Energy Prices, Technology Progress And Carbon Emissions

Posted on:2016-05-26Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J N XueFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330461485422Subject:Population, resource and environmental economics
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In the past century, many observations indicate that the Earth’s climate is undergoing a significant change with global warming as the main feature. The climate change trend in China is consistent with the general trend of the world, the annual average temperature increased by 0.5-0.8 ℃. The International Energy Agency (IEA) data show that carbon dioxide emissions jumped from 1.431 billion tons in 1979 to 9.264 billion tons in 2012, and became the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. The more and more carbon dioxide emissions brought a significant impact on China’s climate, the sea level rises by 2.5 mm every year, the mountain glaciers retreat rapidly, and this kind of trend is accelerating. With global warming becoming the focus of the world’s economic and political relations, China’s energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions had not only attracted growing attention from the international community, but also become the focus of international climate change negotiations.As a responsible developing country, in 2009, China firstly proposed the binding targets of carbon dioxide emissions intensity at the Copenhagen international climate conference, that is by 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will reduce by 40-45% compared to 2005. And this target is deemed a binding target of national economic and social development of long-term planning, in order to form a long-term mechanism Forced hands of China’s economic transformation. However, China is still at a low stage of development, and still need a very long time to complete industrialization and urbanization. Rapid economic growth is still needed. It is a new proposition that china’s economic development must face that how both to ensure continued stable and rapid economic development and honor the Carbon Reduction Commitment to the international community.In this view, based on the perspective of carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions efficiency, the following aspects were analyzed:China’s carbon dioxide emissions of different Provinces were estimated, carbon emission efficiency of china and various provinces were estimated and analyzed, macroeconomic factors that influenced carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions efficiency were analyzed, and carbon emission intensity was decomposed with LMDI.the following aspects is included in this article(1) because there is no provincial database of carbon dioxide emissions, firstly, carbon dioxide emissions of 30 provinces during 1998-2012 was estimated precisely, then carbon dioxide emissions of each region carbon dioxide emissions per capita and regional differences of carbon intensity was analyzed and compared with the world’s major countries.(2) As energy prices and technological advance are important factors affecting carbon emissions. In this paper, the energy price reform process of coal, oil, natural gas, electricity and the development process of China’s high-tech industries was analyzed. Overall, the energy price reform has effectively promoted the development of China’s energy industry, and improved the ability of China’s energy supply, and played an important role in promoting national economic development and guarantying energy security. High-tech industry has growled rapidly from 1995 to 2013, and has played an increasingly important role in the manufacturing industry. The High-tech industry made important contribution to the national economy. However, But more efforts is still needed in capital investment, the key technology, market access, pricing mechanisms and supporting policies,(3) the impact of energy prices and technological advances on the carbon emissions in different regions of our country was studied. To Further study the impact of technological progress on carbon emissions intensity, the Technical Specifications was further decomposed into technical reserves indicators and technology industry indicators. The results confirmed:the impact of Energy prices on the carbon intensity is negative, energy prices increased by 1%,1.948% carbon emission intensity will be decreased; technical reserves indicators represented by patent and technology industry indicators represented by High-tech industrial output value accounted for industrial output value both inhibited the carbon emissions. Patents granted and the value of high-tech industry output accounted for industrial output increase for 1%, carbon emission intensity decreased respectively 1.613% and 2.585%. This shows that with respect to technical reserves, technology industry pronounced more inhibition to carbon emissions intensity. It also reflects technical industrialization should be accelerated so that technology could be used in production as soon as possible. Only in this way, could reducing carbon emissions intensity be more effective. In addition, per capita GDP, industrial structure, international trade also has a significant impact on carbon emissions intensity.(4)Based on Sequential DEA and SBM model, efficiency of the carbon emissions 31 provinces and cities in China during 1998-2013 is measured accurately. Based on the carbon efficiency panel database, fixed effects mode was introduced to assess and analyze the factors affecting the efficiency of China’s carbon emissions from the view of high-tech industries, the per capita GDP, industrial structure, technological level, international trade. The results showed that energy prices and technological advances have a more significant positive effect on the efficiency of carbon emissions, and if energy prices increased by 1%, carbon emission efficiency increases by 0.011%. If the proportion of high-tech industries account for the industry increase by 1%, the efficiency of carbon emissions increased by 0.12%, which also verified the impact of energy prices and technological progress on carbon emissions intensity in Chapter 4.(5)Based on LMDI, China’s carbon emissions is decomposed into population, per capita GDP, industrial structure, energy intensity and energy consumption structure, and carbon emissions of different provinces, different regions and different industries is further analyzed. From a national perspective, the cumulative effect of energy consumption intensity is negative, and the cumulative effect of population, per capita GDP, industrial structure and energy consumption structure are positive. This shows that, in the long run, reducing carbon emissions relies mainly on reducing the energy consumption intensity. Per capita GDP impact on carbon emissions is the most significant. Meanwhile, the various regional different contribution of per capita GDP confirmed the Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve exists. That is, with the economic growth, carbon emissions curve will eventually usher in a turning point and turn into the downstream range, economic growth will become more "clean". In the long term, the little change in energy consumption structure of China results in that the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emissions is not significant. Industrial Structure Optimization could inhibit carbon emissions, however, the effect relatively weak compared to other factors. The changes in the industrial structure of the economically developed provinces brought to reduction of carbon emissions, confirming that industrial upgrading played an important role in reducing carbon emissions. However, within the industry, industrial structure becoming more "heavier" exacerbated increase carbon emissions.Finally, the main practices and key policy measures that developed countries made to reduce carbon emissions and develop low-carbon economy are introduced. And combining theoretical analysis and empirical results of this essay, suggestions for reducing carbon intensity and developing low carbon economy was put forward.
Keywords/Search Tags:Energy prices, Technological progress, Carbon emission intensity, Carbon emission efficiency, LMDI(logarithmic Mean Divisia index), Low-carbon economy
PDF Full Text Request
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