Beijing Integrated Assessment Model For Low-carbon Energy And2030Energy Strategy

Caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from human activities, theproblem of Global climate change has raised comprehensive attentions in theinternational society. The energy consumption is one of the most critical areas.In order to reduce the GHG emissions, how to develop new efficient energytechnology as soon as possible and accelerate its application has become a majorpolicy focus of most countries around the world. Many countries and regions have setup long-term development goal and emissions reduction targets, and taken action onlow carbon energy. As a metropolis with a population of more than twenty million,Beijing is the political, economic and cultural center of China, and its socioeconomicdevelopment level is higher than the national average. The development pattern ofBeijing has considerable influence on other provinces and even the whole country. Inthe rapid development period, Beijing has achieved the national targets of carbondioxide and energy conservation. However, the low level technology of energyutilization and high dependence on fossil energy not only result GHG emissionscontinue to increase, also arouse bad effects on the atmospheric environment. Harmfulparticulates such as PM2.5emissions continue to increase, which seriously affect thecapital function and residents health. Therefore, it is urgent to find a low carbonenergy development path for sustainable development. There is a disparity betweenthe existing urban development path and the theoretical path. One of the most seriousproblems is the challenge of energy and environment. Study on the long-term lowcarbon energy development of Beijing is an attempt to develop low carbon energy forour country in the future.As far as the method of study is concerned, based on the detailed study of theeconomy-energy-environment situation of Beijing and the international main currentanalysis models of energy system, aimed at the multi-target for Beijing in the presentstage to deal with climate change, control atmospheric pollution and energy security,an IPAC-Beijing model energy-technology-economy database has been set up withfull account of the application of new energy-environment technology and theenhancement effect for quality development aroused by innovation. An IPAC-Beijingmodel is developed within a general framework of C++BULIDER language, GAMSlanguage and IPAC model. The development paths for Beijing energy structure optimization and atmospheric environment quality improvement have been calculatedby the IPAC-Beijing model under three scenarios, taking2000as the base year. Thelow carbon energy development target and policy Suggestions of2030have also beenprovided in the case study. The results not only provide a greener sustainabledevelopment for urban research, but also provide quantitative analysis support forother domestic provinces identifying related policies.Presented in the study, the total energy consumption of Beijing in2030can becontrolled in110million tons of standard coal, under the strong policy driven scenario.Hereinto, the total energy consumption of2025can reach about140million tons,GHG emissions reach to2.3million tons, as down to the consumption and emissionlevels of2020, and the air pollution level would also be reduced. The main policysuggestions are: the government should build comprehensive energy system based onthe most advanced technology, abolish the coal consumption in terminal areas, andpromote the application of efficient natural gas combustion technology and newenergy; to make energy efficiency of Beijing reach the international leading levelduring the period of2020to2030, the proportion of new energy and renewableenergy in the energy consumption increase to10%; urban solar-thermal power systemand distributed solar power station on industrial and commercial roof should bevigorously development, shallow geothermal energy and the sewage-source heatpump technologies should be the developing emphases, new energy vehicles andbiofuel technology should also be the focus of government policy. In addition, thecapital function orientation of Beijing should be further clarify, the principal positionof enterprise technology innovation should be establish, the low carbon industrymainly based on high and new technology should be positively developed, a goodsocial atmosphere in the whole society for the green development and sustainabledevelopment should be actively built.