Research On Emergency Decision-making For High-rise Buildings Firefighters

With the rapid development of national economy of China, hundreds of high-rise buildings spring up in the city. It brings potential danger of fire due to the vast scale, the fast increasing, the complicated structure and function as well as the rapid growth of denser personnel. Recently, fire damages occur frequently in the high-rise buildings at home and overseas. Contrast with general fires of building, the high-rise building fires spread faster, evacuation becomes difficult, and it is more likely to result in significant casualties and large property loss, leaving an awkward situation to the society and our government. Therefore, what is the most urgent to academics and the government is how to adopt precautionary measures to warn and face the contingent accidents, so that we can try our best to avoid the loss and maintain social stability.As a vital part of emergency management, emergency decision-mking is to take a series of positive selective actions to deal with the urgent problem. It is not only the decision and response after the events, but also including the identification and warning of the various risk factors before the ahead of the possible incident. We can’t deny that traditional emergency management system of ’predict-tackle’ cannot meet the pressing demand of preventing fire accident in those high-rise buildings with its drawback of time limitation,the lack of complete information, the changeable environment and the high-risk effect when you choose A or B plan, or even an unpredictable C. This paper researches the key technologies of’scenario-response’emergency decision-making which might benefit us a lot and avoid unexpected danger.In this study, the main research work is as follows:(1) Constructs an emergency decision-making framework for high-rise buildings firefighters based on scenario-building and emergency plans.On the basis of analyzing characteristics of high-rise building and summarizing the issues and challenges of emergency decision-making, this study proposes an emergency decision-making framework for high-rise buildings firefighters based on scenario-building and emergency plans, which covers risk assessment and early warning, fire rescue emergency planning before a fire; scenario evolutionary and emergency plans matching after the fire; and the assessment of emergency decision effect after the end of the fire rescue.(2) Proposes a early warning model of high-rise buildings firefighters based on catastrophe theoryBased on the catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics, this study analyses the main risk source of high-rise building fires effectively, constructs a fire risk evaluation indices system for high-rise building, proposes a fuzzy dynamic assesment method based on catastrophe theory, and use an example of Shangri-La Hotel of X city to illustration the effectiveness of the proposed theorem.(3) Provides an action plan compiling method based on scenario-buildingOn the basis of analyzing the main problems of current action plan compiling, this paper provides an action plan compiling method based on scenario-building. Finally, the numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed theorem.(4) Builds a scenario analysis and inference model of high-rise buildings fires based on bayesian networks and evidence theoryThe work is to take present influential situation factors as known conditions to explore relationships between themselves and also their impact on the factors of next scenario so that we can realize potential dangers behind. For better analysis, this study describe all factors concerned for research from three aspects, those are fire source, fire victims, fire fighter. And I want to take the example of fire in Shenyang royal international building in February,2th in2011to examine its effect.(5) Provides a method about matching emergency plans in corresponding fire occasion of high-rise buildings based on analysis in scenario-similarityEmergency plan, case based reasoning and intelligent planning are the three most commonly used emergency management methods, among which the emergency plan is the mainly adopted method in fire sphere. The study introduces not only the method mentioned above, but also it explains in detail about key situations as well as their representing ways and corresponding scenario analysis and scenario retrieving arithmetics. It is a global difficulty how to make reasonable warnings and try efficient methods in the fire of high-rise buildings, while this sudy may provide scientific, efficient and methodic decision-choose plans for which in China. Simultaneously, knowledge in system dynamics, fire science, architecture, information science, management science and some other aspects and fields is all involved. Besides, some schemes of the research are the vital and tough problems among the whole academic world, such as the problem about sudden fire in high-rise buildings, scenario construction and emergency management. I believe the research will contribute to fields-cross, fusion and the development of multiply subjects, and it will enrich the basic theory of Management Science and Engineering.