Study On The Key Technology Of Traffic Management Under Large Special Events

Large special events bring about multitudinous people and vehicles at small area in a short time, the traffic around the event location became very bigger than normal. How to ensure traffic unblocked and reduce the impact on normal traffic during large special events is a difficult problem to traffic manager. According with characteristics of traffic under large special events, this article improved and developed the theory and method of traffic management planning.Traffic under special events differ greatly from normal traffic, it has follows characteristics, provisional traffic, disequilibrium travel (do not accord with user equilibrium), all-to-one network (all travel production zones to one abstraction zone), significant tidal traffic, distinct difference of traffic direction, great travel demand, etc. But most research on traffic management under special events are ill-considered the above catachrestic, so base on the traffic characteristic under special events, infra researches were developed.After summarizing experience of traffic management under special events, this article put forward a framework of traffic management under special events, which classify traffic management measures into three categories by purpose. Because of distinct difference of traffic direction, single direction green belt was researched in detail.Because audience trip has all-to-one characteristic, the result of audience generation forecast can be regard as trip distribution forecast result, then using singly constrained gravity model, Audience generation model was established. In this model, ticket price, event grade, income difference and consumption structure of people are concerned. Base on disaggregate theory, a disaggregate audience generation model is established, this mode concern event character and people character. And these two audience generation models are compared.Whereas special event impact traffic in small area, it is very necessarily to delimitate traffic research area from the whole urban area. Then combining traffic impact analysis theory, the method of how to delimitate traffic research area is put forward. Delimitated traffic research area can reduce complicacy and increase precision in traffic analysis.Base on local area network OD matrix estimation character, two OD matrix estimation methods were developed. One method regard the cross turning ratio as vehicle turning probability, then vehicles entering research area can distribute at cross one by one, at last those vehicles will leave the area by different exit road, then OD matrix would be obtained. The other method proved that traffic assignment ratio to each road is changeless when estimating OD matrix, base on wardrop equilibrium theory and stochastic assignment method the means to estimate assignment ratio was put forward, then OD matrix estimate avoid again and again traffic assignment.Considering audience traffic assignment has disequilibrium and all-to-one characteristic, base on stochastic traffic assignment method, this research developed a new traffic assignment method, which can simulate audience route choice behavior. Also this paper put forward a new method to solve dispersive multi-parking pots problem, and the method could solve audiences parking pots choice problem.This research investigate traffic spatio-temporal change rule in detail, and developed a traffic spatio-temporal dissipation method, which include two steps: traffic temporal change forecast and traffic spatial change forecast. In this method, parking lots position, audience exeunt rule, road capacity,...