Study On The Traffic Demand Forecast And Traffic Management Plan Of Large Special Events

As the continuing development of China economy healthily, there will be more and more large special events, such as Olympic Games, Expo, Vocal concert and so on. Therewith, they bring us great economic and social benefit.Congestion has already become the block of China economy. But large special events always induce a great deal of traffic trip. The traffic demand can't be satisfied by its self-adjusting ability of the old transportation system. So a special traffic management planning scheme must be carried through for a successful large special event. But the study of large special events has only step its first step. Some experts and scholars didn't join in this field gradually until China won the hold priority of the Olympic Games.This article expatiates on the traffic management planning theory and correlation application technique of large special events by the numbers. It includes five aspects as followed: characteristic analysis of large special events, traffic demand forecast, traffic management planning, evaluation index system, and instance analysis. This article expatiates on the abroad planning experience and theory fruit of large special events. It gives the boundary of large special events and classifies it; then it analyses its characteristic in detailed. This paper studies traffic demand characteristic of large special events deeply; then, it put forward traffic distribution model, traffic mode split model, and traffic assignment model based on road section impedance, intersection impedance and multi-path distribution method; then it analyzes the audience traffic distribution control strategy of empty after the show and uses reference of peak flow control theory of flood. It expatiates on the traffic planning principle and total planning flow; then it discusses the content of traffic management planning in public transmit, stop station planning, VIP traffic management, security planning and inner stage management planning in detailed. It brings forward a suit of new evaluation index system for large special events that bases on its peculiarity. This evaluation system presents a specific evaluation criterion in checking the planning scheme's rationality and feasibility; at the same time, it has real instruction meaning for optimizing planning scheme. Finally, this article chooses The 10^th China International Agricultural Machinery Exhibition as research body and uses above planning theory for optimizing management planning scheme. The forecast result displays that the optimized scheme greatly improves the whole city's traffic transportation quality. It has important consult meaning and instruction meaning for the same style large special events in future.