| According to the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas becoming increasingly severe, firstly, the paper studies from the situation and feature of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas, and divides it into several regions according to basin's pollution feature by adopting the method of searching documents , research, systems analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis and so on, and analyzes the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas from the view of tri-dimension and system by use of the theory of Environmental value, Technology Value, Ecology, Circular economy , uses System Dynamics to track dynamically the change in the future of the various variables in different modes and constructs the system mode of agricultural tri-dimension pollution in Yellow River Basin, and simulates the system; Secondly, the paper takes Yinchuan Plain in Ningxia irrigated by Yellow River as example and analyzes the model whether it is reliable, evaluates the system of agricultural tri-dimension pollution under Integrated Management Mode from the perspective of circular economy, and establishes the applicability of system model in study area; Finally, on basis of model verification, evaluates and forecasts four scenario mode of prevention and cure of pollution by use of Analytic Hierarchy Process, builds the corresponding best integrated controlling mode according to different types of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas, and put forward to the technical mode and key measures respectively for different region in Yellow River Basin areas. The paper makes the following main conclusions:(a) Simulation model of controlling agriculture tri-dimension pollution and the method of system evaluation constructed by the application of System Dynamics is reliable. The result verified by the case of technical mode constructed by simulation in Yinchuan Plain in Ningxia irrigated by Yellow River shows that: the analysis results get from system model of controlling agriculture tri-dimension are consistent to measured results in case area, Maximum relative error is less than 9.5%, Minimum error is less than 1%, which shows that system model parameters and quantitative evaluation of selected indicators is reasonable, the model can be used in areas, the research method provides accurate quantitative reference for optimization and choosing the best development mode of system for other areas in our country.(b)We should understand and control agricultural pollution in Yellow River Basin areas from the perspective of system and tri-dimension. The study result shows that, the feature of agriculture tri-dimension pollution in Yellow River Basin Areas is clear, If we do nothing for the current mode of development in Yellow River Basin areas, the total nitrogen content in surface water, nitrogen oxide content in atmosphere and nitrate content in agricultural products will add 117.60,16.52 and 100.07 percent respectively in 2020. The unilateral study on water, soil and atmosphere in Yellow River Basin is far from solving agricultural pollution effectively, only adopting countermeasures of integrated ecosystem management, prevention and cure agricultural pollution, can we solve fundamentally the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin Areas.(c) The effect of adopting integrated management mode to prevent and cure the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Area is distinguished. The study result shows that, compared with the mode of do nothing for the current mode of development, after adopting the mode of integrated management, the total nitrogen content in surface water, nitrogen oxide content in atmosphere and nitrate content in agricultural products will reduce 87.01, 27.70 and 74.36 percent respectively in 2020, while nitrogen content in soil and food production will add 53.27 and 88.07 percent respectively. Through the contrastive analysis between several technical mode, we can find that the effect of integrated management mode is prominent, which is the ideal mode for prevention and cure Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River in future and deserves to be vigorously promoted in Yellow River Basin Areas.(d)The technical mode recommended by the paper for integrated prevention and cure of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin Areas is reasonable. the result of comparison with the level of circular economy of Yin Chuan plain irrigated by the Yellow River under several technical modes shows that, after adopting the mode of integrated management, the level of circular economy will be added 28.59 percent in 2020,compared with that in 2006, integrated management mode is most prominent for making influence on the level of circular economy of this area, which shows that the technical mode for prevention and cure of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin Area is practical to some extent. |
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