Study On Tourism Carrying Capacity In Coastal City

The paper studied on urban tourism carrying capacity (TCC). A coastal city is a good district to develop tourism industry, meanwhile some other coastal and ocean industries also concentrated here. That result in series problem was existed and produced in the coastal cities. The paper focused on coastal tourism, studied how to measure TCC in coastal cities, and attain moderating development of tourism economy and city environmentBased on the summary of TCC's concepts and calculate models from domestic and international articles, a new calculate model of TCC was built which based on the Maximization of Profit principle and combined fuzzy mathematics. In order to prove the possibility of the model, built up an urban tourism environment evaluation model and urban tourism economy and ecological environment coordination model, make two results with TCC's assessment do relativity analysis.Take Dalian as an example which is a north coastal city in China, collected related data in 1990 up to now of city economy, tourism and environment. Use those data to do the assessment of TCC, evaluation of urban tourism environment, urban tourism economy and ecological environment coordination degree. The result of TCC in Dalian is "weak", but after 2000 it is close to "minimum limit"; the correlation coefficients that one is 0.818783 to the evaluation of urban tourism environment, another is 0.970204 to the coordination degree. The related results present that the model contain certain rationality.On this foundation, the paper predicted TCC in Dalian with different methods. With BP-ANN the average error of the prediction is 0.073713. It is much better than 0.210087 which is the average error with regression trend prediction. The end leads the theories of early-warning system into TCC research, Dalian's TCC present shallow blue, belong to vigilance area. As Dalian is a northern city in China, tourism industry presents an obvious seasonal unbalance, almost half of a year scenic spots to be placed in a state of inactivity.The results of the TCC model built in the paper are much the same as present condition of Dalian. The model has certain rationality, the conclusion is more satisfied.