Study On Risk Management And Application Of Geology Project

Along with the growth of China economic construction, geological-related construction projects are turning larger in scale and locating more complicated problems. The situation has drawn the intention of most of academicians and technical engineers. In the paper, we follow 2 main logic threads: firstly to analyze current research status of geological-related projects, as well as the form and characteristics of its potential risk; secondly to discuss current risk-management mindset and risk-assessment theories adopted in geological engineer projects.1. New acknowledgement to Geological engineering(1)Geological engineering studies projects with major structure of geology based. It contains three basic points: the controlling function of geological environment to the safety and stableness of projects, the studies and developments of geological disaster remediation and geological disaster monitoring and forecasting.(2)Basic principle of geological engineering researches is to reach appropriate construction method, consolidated remediation project measurements, disaster-proof design and disaster forecast based on geological condition studies; the purpose of the researches is to prevent geological disaster, ensure the safety of constructions and perform the best coupling of nature and construction system.(3)The paper believes that geological engineering projects contains three basic characteristics:①Difficulties and complex factors in project setup;②Reflection of multiple geological technologies;(3)Invisibility and sustainability of projects.2. Risk characteristics of geological engineering projects(1)Due to the agnostic and complex character of geological engineering projects, its basic parameter design is quite flexible and subjective:①Dual resources of risks: from nature and human beings;②Rjsk is the combination of objective conditions and subjective cognition;③Changeable and usable risks;④Multiple style and level of risks;⑤Countable and in-countable risks.(2) Considering the probability of risk distribution, the characteristics of geological construction and its risk presenting form, the paper distribute risks into 4 levels of avoidable, transferable, alleviatable and acceptable.3. Discussion of geological engineering project risk management(1)The paper concluded the administrative character of geological engineering projects as below:①Multi-parties: geological engineering constructions are usually implemented by several parties without stable cooperative relations; these parties possess different, sometimes even opposite interest-related concerns;②Time-window-related risk: risk of latent period and active period. Different construction stage consist different risks and the undertaker of the risks burdens the risks only within specific time-window.③Purpose of project risk management is to keep forecasting possible risks and to design related urgent plans.④Project risk management is not free.(2) The paper defines geological engineering project management as a dynamic process that gains the best safety effect with least cost by project administrators' risk reorganization and measurement choosing.①Management process includes risk recognition and assessment, management plan, risk related decision-making and risk control performance;②Risk control measurements include organization measurement, administrative measurement, economic measurement and technical measurement.4. Building of risk assessment modelCombining geological engineering project management characteristics and its management process, the paper performed discussion to system risk, decision-making risk, as well as cost and process risk from 5 aspects:(1)System risk assessment: analyze risk factors that may potentially affects construction from dimensions of time, space and achievement, based on different weight of assessment ingredients and factors, adopting fuzzy sets transform to describe the fuzzy borderline of different ingredients and factors by subjectiveness, create fuzzy assessment matrix and determine risk level of the subject;(2) Decision making risk assessment: based on analysis to projec decision-making process and the principle of scientific decision-making, adopting theories of discrete mathmatics, set theory and statistical methods to create arethmatic model of decision-making risk and risky decision-making;(3)Sub-contract risk assessment: adopting grey segregation analysis, supported by grey statistics and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) methods to establish project sub-contract risk analysis model.(4)Construction cost management and risk forcast: adoting Information Renewal GM (1,1) Model to predict implementation cost and to create construction cost risk monitoring and forecast model(5)Construction progress risk assessment: firstly, to discuss the progress risk assessment methodology of single project goal based on progress risk factor analysis; secondly, to adopt fuzzy optimization and dynamic mesh structure and analyze pre-set different progress plans to provide support for scientific decision making; as well as to establish dynamic network model to provide better monitoring and forecast for the project progress risk.