Analysis Of The Characteristics Of Injury Death And Disease Burden In The Rural Areas Of Zhangwu And Fengcheng In Liaoning Province From 2009 To 2018

Objective:To understand the change trend of injury death characteristics and disease burden in rural areas of zhangwu and fengcheng from 2009 to 2018,so as to provide scientific basis for injury prevention and control.Methods:Collected 2009-2018 all-cause death data and demographic data from Zhangwu and Fengcheng,Liaoning Province,and calculated relevant indicators such as cause-of-death order,crude death rate,standardized death rate,life expectancy,and years of life loss due to early death.Trend analysis and prediction of injury deaths and disease burden.Results:1.From 2009 to 2018,the top five causes of death in Zhangwu and Fengcheng rural areas are:circulatory system diseases,tumors,injuries,respiratory diseases and endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases.2.Injury mortality rate and standardized mortality rate were 48.80/100,000 and 44.69/100,000,respectively.Among them,male mortality rate and standardized mortality rate were higher than female mortality rate(?~2=1181.63,1058.12,P<0.05).The total standardized mortality of injury showed a downward trend with the change of years(APC=-3.78%,P<0.05).3.2009-2018 life expectancy was 77.83 years,and life expectancy after injury was 78.95years.Among them,male life expectancy and life expectancy after injury were both lower than women;2009-2018 men,women and total life expectancy All of them showed an upward trend with the year(APC=0.60%,0.85%,0.72%,P<0.05);the life expectancy of females and the total removal of injuries all showed an upward trend with the year(APC=0.85%,0.69%,P<0.05).4.The YLL of injury from 2009 to 2018 was 90197.89,and the AYLL was 18.79 per person.The male YLL and standardized YLL rates(69995.57 person-years,13.28‰)were greater than women(20202.32 person-years,3.97‰).Both the total YLL rate and the standardized YLL rate showed a downward trend with the change of years(APC=-2.81%,-2.27%,P<0.05).According to different types of injuries from 2009 to 2018,the total standardized YLL rate and AYLL of traffic accidents showed a downward trend with the year(APC=-4.41%,-1.50,P<0.05);the total YLL and YLL rates that fell fell with the year The change showed an upward trend(APC=6.90%,7.51%,P<0.05);the total standardized YLL rate and AYLL of poisoning showed a downward trend with the change of years(APC=-8.05%,-3.14%,P<0.05),The total YLL,YLL rate,and standardized YLL rate of suicide(APC=-6.11%,-5.60%,-7.68%,P<0.05)showed a downward trend with the increase in years.5.GM(1,1)forecast results show that the total standardized mortality rates for2019-2022 are 40.09/100,000,39.85/100,000,39.60/100,000,and 39.36/100,000(MAPE=2.56%);Total YLL rates in 2022 are 7.21‰,6.52‰,5.89‰,5.32‰(MAPE=0.86%);total standardized YLL rates in 2019-2022 are 7.47‰,7.35‰,7.22‰,7.10‰(MAPE=0.52%).Conclusion:From 2009 to 2018,the total standardized mortality,total YLL,total YLL rate,and total standardized YLL rate of injuries in the rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng,Liaoning Province,all showed a downward trend with changes in years.Mortality is higher for men than for women,and increases with age.The standardized mortality rate in Fengcheng area is higher than that in Zhangwu area.The top five causes of injuries were traffic accidents,suicides,falls,poisoning and drowning.Suicide mortality is on the decline,and falling mortality is on the rise.From 2009 to 2018,the male,female and total life expectancy all showed an upward trend with the year;the female and the total life expectancy of the respiratory disease all showed an upward trend with the year.The application of GM predictions shows that the total mortality rate,total standardized mortality rate,total YLL rate,and total standardized YLL rate in the rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng,Liaoning Province,from 2019 to 2022 will decrease year by year.